How Iran's election – and three others – have reshaped Mideast
Briefing: With newly installed or reinstalled leaders in Iran, Lebanon,
Israel, and the US, the balance of power has shifted between a US-allied bloc and the 'axis of resistance.'
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While the result was a disappointment for Hezbollah and its allies, both sides appear to favor a consensus approach to the formation of the next government, which could help sustain a period of calm. On June 25, lawmakers reelected a pro-Hezbollah speaker of parliament, while March 14 leader Saad Hariri was appointed the new prime minister days later. Mr. Hariri is tasked with forming a new government – a process he says is under way – but Saudi Arabia and Syria, which have engaged in a series of talks recently, also have significant sway on the future of power sharing in the country.Skip to next paragraph
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One reason Lebanon has been roiled by political crisis for the past three years is that the rival camps are backed by Syria and Saudi Arabia, which have been at odds. The Syrians and Saudis now are engaged in a rapprochement that has helped ease tensions in Lebanon and facilitated a generally calm election. So long as the spirit of conciliation remains, analysts say Lebanon could be stable in the months ahead. But the duration of that calm depends largely on developments elsewhere in the region.
How do the protests in Iran affect possible engagement with the US?
The consequences of the protests will be felt for months or even years to come, and are likely to put a temporary cap on Iran's regional reach, while limiting dialogue with the US.
"The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days," said Obama late last month, adding that he "strongly condemn[ed] these unjust actions."
The disputed vote – after which hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the streets and battled riot police, charging massive fraud against Mr. Mousavi – has exposed deep divisions among Iran's top clerics, and widened Iran's cultural divide.
Protesters once again clashed with security forces Thursday after Mousavi's supporters called for large marches on the 10th anniversary of the 1999 student uprising. The protests arose despite government threats that they would be met with force.
With Iran so focused on affairs at home, it is unlikely that there will be any significant changes soon to foreign policy – whether a new nuclear policy or responding to Obama's overtures – apart from blaming the US and the West for all the violence.
"At the moment nothing is going to happen, because Iranians are so gripped," says Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland. "In Washington, they won't like this. But basically the Iranians are very insular, and everything is dictated by the internal dynamic. So the American part of it [is subsumed by] this battle of power. [Ayatollah] Khamenei has to consolidate power in Iran. The Americans can wait ... it's a secondary concern."
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