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World watches key Lebanon vote

A Hizbullah victory would strain ties with the US and with pro-Western nations like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

Lebanese voters lined up Sunday to cast their ballots at a polling station in Beirut's Christian sector of Ashrafieh.

Hussein Malla/AP

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By Tom A. Peter / June 7, 2009

A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Lebanon and much of the international community are waiting with baited breath as citizens cast their votes in the nation's parliamentary election on Sunday. More than 200 international observers are overseeing the election, which is in a dead heat between the Western-backed March 14 faction and the Hizbullah-led coalition supported by Iran and Syria.

The outcome of the election will likely determine not only much about the future of Lebanon's internal politics, but it also stands to reshape international relations in the Middle East. Top US officials have implied that military aid may be reduced if the militant Hizbullah wins a majority of the parliament. A Hizbullah victory would strain ties with pro-Western nations like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, it may send Iran a signal that its aggressive stance toward the West and Israel is well received in the region.

Lebanese television stations have reported heavy voter turn-out so far, with a number of Lebanese citizens who live overseas returning home for the elections. There are 128 available seats in the parliament and three million eligible voters in Lebanon. The Gulf News reports that security is tight, with nearly 55,000 soldiers and policemen securing the countries 1,700 voting centers.

The country is divided between two main coalitions. The March 14 bloc is aligned with pro-Western interests and is the current ruling party. It is competing against the Hizbullah-led, March 8 opposition bloc that includes Christian and pro-Syrian groups. Lebanon's Daily Star reports that neither bloc is expected to win a decisive victory.

Polling suggests that the elections will be decided by a small margin of votes in a select number of districts. Either of the blocs could take a slim majority, according to analysts, but neither is expected to win a definitive mandate. In addition, the presence of several independents, with a declared allegiance to the president, has the potential to prevent either side from winning a majority, which would force the formation of a unity government.

The country's Christians are expected to be the "king makers" in this election, reports Al Jazeera. The group is heavily divided and remains active in both blocs. This fluid group will likely produce Lebanon's swing voters.

The Daily Kos, a liberal blog, offers a historical context for the elections and a basic overview of its major players.

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