US intel chief says no Iran nukes possible before 2013

Iran will probably not have the technical ability to produce enough fuel to make a nuclear bomb before 2013, US Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair told a senate intelligence committee earlier this year.

He also said that he's seen no evidence Iran is seeking to make fuel for a bomb, and that international scrutiny appears to be deterring such efforts.

The American intelligence community's views on Iran's nuclear program, progress in Afghanistan, and the extent of Al Qaeda's operational abilities were all addressed in a 40- page series of answers that Mr. Blair delivered to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on February 12.

But only now has it become public.

The document was released to Steven Aftergood, who runs the Project on Government Secrecy for the Federation of American Scientists following a Freedom of Information Act request. (A PDF to the full document can be found at this link.)

On Iran's nuclear program, Blair relied on the assessment of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) to say that Iran does not yet have the technical ability to produce the highly enriched uranium (HEU) it would need for a bomb.

"INR continues to assess it is unlikely that Iran will have the technical capability to produce HEU before 2013,'' the memo reads.

Blair said that if Iran decides to make highly enriched uranium that it would probably use "military-run covert facilities, rather than declared nuclear sites" and that "outfitting a covert enrichment infrastructure could take years. The (intelligence community) has no evidence that Iran has yet made the decision to produce highly enriched uranium, and INR assesses that Iran is unlikely to make such a decision for at least as long as international scrutiny and pressure persist."

Why Iran backs the Taliban

Blair says in the report that Iran's "policy calculation in Afghanistan currently emphasizes lethal support to the Taliban, even though revelation of this activity could threaten its future relationship with the Afghan government and its historic allies within Afghanistan."

Iran is a Shiite theocracy and the Taliban is militant Sunni movement which views Shiites as apostates that should be executed. Blair says Iran has made uneasy common cause with them because "Iran is primarily concerned with preserving its national security and undermining Western influence in Afghanistan."

Similarly, Blair says that Iran has been a provider of "training, weapons, and money to Hamas since the 2006 Palestinian elections." Hamas is the Islamist (Sunni) Palestinian movement that now controls the Gaza strip.

Here's a summary from other bits the memo that caught my eye.

Al Qaeda's 20-year plan

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