New US approach to Afghanistan insurgency: Vindication for Pakistan?

Such an outcome would be favored by Pakistan, he says, which has long resisted calls to tackle the Al Qaeda affiliated group in its North Waziristan base, partly out of fear of a backlash and partly so it may continue to exert influence by proxy in Afghanistan.

Pakistani vindication

The Pakistani government has called for groups such as the Haqqani network and the forces of warlorld Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to be included in peace talks, and as such may view the move by the US to talk to Kabir as a vindication of its own long-time policy.

“There is a certain duality in the American approach: on the one hand they are talking to Haqqani and on the other they are also asking Pakistan to take them on, which Islamabad finds baffling,” Mr. Hussain says.

“Pakistan favors the government of Afghanistan to talk to the Taliban, and it would like to facilitate that as much as it can. Maulvi Kabir is in custody, so the government of Pakistan would have allowed [the Afghan government] to talk to him,” Brigadier Shah says.

So far, the Pakistan Army has resisted calls to carry out a full blown attack in North Waziristan, an area where the Pakistan Army currently has 34,000 troops.

“What we have to do, we have to stabilize the whole area. I have a very large area in my command. So I must stabilize the other areas, and then maybe look at North Waziristan” Lt. Gen. Asif Yasin Malik, the main military commander in the area, told reporters last week.

What rooting out the Haqqanis will do for Pakistan

Operations against the Taliban are still ongoing in three of the seven Tribal areas, Bajaur, Mohmand, and South Waziristan. The Pakistani Taliban are waging a campaign of terror in Pakistan’s cities. “Committing to fight the Haqqanis at this stage could create a serious internal threat for Pakistan,” says Dr. Hussain, the analyst.

Ultimately, however, it may be the so-called Quetta Shura, which consists of the Taliban leaders who fled from Afghanistan after the US-led invasion in 2001, and not the Haqqani network or other Pakistan-backed warlords who will be crucial to achieving a settlement, according to Hussain.

The Monitor reported a number of the leadership council were arrested in February including the Taliban number two, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, though Pakistan is limiting US and Afghan access to them, according to Ahmed Rashid, author of “Descent into Chaos.”

“They have the legitimacy of leading the Jihad against the foreign occupation,” as opposed to the Haqqani network which is politically weak and unpopular within Afghanistan. “The Quetta Shura is more independent and wants to assert itself. It does not [want] to appear as a stooge for the Pakistanis,” he says.

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