Terrorism & Security

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, speaks to the media as he was released in a courtroom in Kirov, Russia, on Friday. Mr. Navalny was released from custody less than 24 hours after he was convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to five years in prison. The release came after a surprise request by prosecutors, who said that because Navalny is a candidate in this falls Moscow mayoral race keeping him in custody would deny him his right to seek election. (Dmitry Lovetsky/AP)

Why did the Kremlin release Russian opposition activist Navalny? (+video)

By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / 07.19.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

The day after Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny's conviction sent thousands of Russians into the streets in protest, he was unexpectedly released on bail, likely indicating Kremlin uncertainty about how to prevent his case from becoming a fresh rallying point for the opposition.

Mr. Navalny and his supporters slammed his five-year prison sentence on embezzlement charges as a politically motivated ruling intended to silence the top government critic and activist, who was one of the central organizers of mass protests against President Vladimir Putin in December 2011.

He was convicted of embezzling 16 million rubles ($494,000) from a timber firm while advising the regional governor of Kirov in 2009, according to Reuters. He never pleaded guilty to the charges.

Even more unusual than the release on bail was the source of the request – according to Reuters, it came from the prosecution, indicating the Kremlin's concern about a revival of mass demonstrations. Navalny hailed the ruling as a victory for "people power."

"I am very grateful to all the people who supported us, all the people who went to (protest in Moscow's) Manezh Square and other squares," the 37-year-old said, rushing across the court to hug his wife after he was released from a glass courtroom cage.

"We understand perfectly well what has happened now. It's an absolutely unique phenomenon in Russian justice," he said in the court in Kirov, an industrial city 900 km (550 miles) northeast of Moscow.

According to a separate Reuters piece, Navalny has "grasped a mood change in Russia among the urban youth and growing middle class" and "embodies the rebellious generation of young Russians who have taken to the streets to try to force out President Vladimir Putin."

Tall, clean-cut, confident and articulate, Navalny has more potential than any other opposition leader to at least rattle, if not directly challenge, Putin.

Thursday's verdict was seen by many as a sign that the president himself sees him as a threat, even though opinion polls suggest his appeal does not go far beyond the big cities. 

"Navalny's sentence looks less like punishment than an attempt to isolate him from society and the electoral process," declared former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, a longtime Putin ally respected by many Western economists and politicians.

Thousands turned out in Moscow and other cities, including St. Petersburg, after the ruling was handed down yesterday. About 200 were arrested by police in Moscow, although they were all released today.

But according to The Washington Post, Navalny's release had less to do with the protests and more to do with making sure Navalny remains on the mayoral ballot so that a victory by current mayor Sergei Sobyanin has legitimacy. The Post describes authorities in Moscow as "intent" on keeping Navalny in the race and "confident" that Mr. Sobyanin will win.

The aim would be to give Sobyanin a legitimate victory in the heart of Russia’s opposition movement.

That calculation — more than the street protests — appears to have been the deciding factor in the prosecutors’ motion.

One of Navalny’s closest associates, Leonid Volkov, had said after Thursday’s sentencing that if Navalny goes to prison he will drop out of the mayoral race. That may have supplied the pressure needed to get him freed.

According to the Post, Navalny must remain in Moscow for the entirety of the appeal period, which typically lasts about six weeks, although Russian news outlet RIA Novosti reports that the appeal process lasts only 10 days and his prison sentence will be implemented then, unless Navalny issues another appeal.

The local office of Russia's general prosecutor filed a complaint yesterday contesting the jailing, saying the country's criminal code did not permit it during the appeal period. The prosecutor's office is a different authority than the one that charged Navalny, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Co-defendant Petr Ofitserov, who received a four-year sentence yesterday, was also released. 

Navalny's sentence earned condemnation from the US and European Union, as well as comparisons to Soviet Russia's "show trials" from critics. Russian shares tumbled to their lowest point in more than a month in response.

RIA Novosti reports that Navalny said he had not yet decided whether to revive his bid for mayor of Moscow, which is holding elections in September. The activist registered as a candidate Wednesday, the day before his sentencing.

"I'm not a pet kitten or puppy who they have thrown out and then decided to release for a month before the election," he said. "I will make a decision with my campaign team after I get back to Moscow."

Navalny’s campaign manager Leonid Volkov said Thursday after the conviction was announced that Navalny would drop his bid to stand for mayor because “it is not an election; there is no point in taking part.”

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, center, and his former colleague Pyotr Ofitserov, foreground, listen to the judge in a court in Kirov, Russia on Thursday, July 18, 2013. (Evgeny Feldman/AP)

Conviction of Russian activist Navalny draws condemnation

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 07.18.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

The conviction and five-year sentence of a prominent Russian anticorruption campaigner has reverberated throughout the country, with opposition members calling it proof of President Vladimir Putin’s crackdown on dissent.

Opposition activist and corruption blogger Alexei Navalny was convicted of embezzling nearly a half-million dollars from a Russian timber company while advising the governor of Kirov in 2009. The court’s ruling came the day after Mr. Navalny registered to run for mayor of Moscow, according to RIA Novosti. The conviction, unless appealed and pending at the time of elections, will bar him from the mayoral race, reports The Wall Street Journal. Navalny has said he would like to run for president in the 2018 election.

"The court, having examined the case, has established that Navalny organized a crime and ... the theft of property on a particularly large scale," Judge Sergei Blinov read in the verdict, explicitly stating there were no “political motives” to the ruling.

A European Union spokesman criticized the court’s decision, stating that the charges were unfounded and that Navalny’s imprisonment presented “serious questions as to the state of the rule of law in Russia,” according to the BBC. US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul tweeted, "We are deeply disappointed in the conviction of [Navalny] and the apparent political motivations in this trial."

Navalny’s case is the most prominent against an opposition member in the country, according to The Washington Post:

[A]s he was led into custody, it became clear that those in power in Russia have chosen not to be subtle as they crack down on the opposition….

Navalny had been hoping for a suspended sentence, in the belief that the Kremlin would want to avoid a backlash if it appeared too harsh.

"With today's ruling, Putin has told the whole world he is a dictator who sends his political opponents to prison," opposition politician Boris Nemtsov told Reuters.

Before the trial began in the spring, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin “does not interfere, can't interfere, and in this case has no right to interfere.”

The Christian Science Monitor’s Moscow correspondent, Fred Weir, described Navalny as one of “seven Russians to watch” after large-scale protests against vote-rigging broke out in December 2011. The demonstrations created “fresh leaders” in Russia that uniquely arose “without the Kremlin's backing.”

Arrested in an unsanctioned rally to protest electoral fraud on Dec. 5, Navalny emerged from prison 15 days later with his credibility as an activist greatly enhanced and some people already citing him as a possible presidential contender capable of challenging Putin. Nominations for … presidential polls are already closed, but Navalny has made clear that he will work against Putin and could run against him if it became possible.

Addressing the massive Dec. 24 rally in Moscow, Navalny flirted with sedition by remarking, "I can see that there are enough people here to seize the Kremlin right now. We are a peaceful force and will not do it now. But if these rogues and thieves try to go on cheating us, if they continue telling lies and stealing from us, we will take what belongs to us with our own hands."

According to Reuters, Navalny has “captured the mood” of Russians disappointed and disenchanted with Putin’s lengthy rule. The president took office for a third term last year, and has been accused of using courts as a tool to silence opponents.

But the opposition leader’s rise “has also been dogged by accusations that he has nationalist tendencies and his appeal is limited outside the big cities,” Reuters reports.

The BBC reports that television media in Russia paid little attention to the court proceedings, though, “in an unusual step, the court allowed the whole trial to be broadcast live online.” Navalny posted on Twitter during the trial and during the reading of his legal fate. "Okay, don't miss me. More important - don't be idle," he tweeted after his sentence was announced.

“Show me another person who, acting almost alone, has been able within a year to deal a tangible blow to a political monopoly of such magnitude,” Grigory Golosov, a St. Petersburg political scientist wrote before the trial began, according to The Washington Post. “After two decades of unbridled political ridiculousness, he has largely rehabilitated political debate as meaningful.”

Mr. Navalny’s co-defendant, Petr Ofitserov, was sentenced to four years in prison.

Police patrol by boat next to the North Korean-flagged cargo ship Chong Chon Gang docked at the Manzanillo International container terminal on the coast of Colon City, Panama, Tuesday, July 16. Panama's president said the country has seized the ship, carrying what appeared to be ballistic missiles and other arms that had set sail from Cuba. (Arnulfo Franco/AP)

North Korea missiles: Cache of 'obsolete' Cuban weapons seized from North Korean ship (+video)

By Whitney Eulich, Staff writer / 07.17.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Cuba acknowledged Tuesday night that it is the owner of the Soviet-era weapons confiscated by Panamanian officials on a ship flying a North Korean flag, the discovery of which has raised concern over a potential bilateral arms trade.

The ship Chong Chon Gang’s cargo consisted of about 240 tons of what Cuba called “obsolete defensive weapons” that it said were being sent to North Korea for repair, according to The Associated Press. The arms, including missiles, were found buried under about 200,000 sacks of Cuban sugar, reports the Financial Times.

Current United Nations sanctions against North Korea prohibit providing the country with weapons, and the shipment would violate numerous UN Security Council resolutions, according to US State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell. The nation was slapped with increased sanctions earlier this year after a missile launch and nuclear test. Cuba is listed by the United States as a state sponsor of terror, but North Korea was taken off the list in 2008.

According to the London-based defense analysis organization IHS Janes, the undeclared weapons have two potential outlooks:

The system could either be being sent to North Korea for an upgrade before returning to Cuba, perhaps in a barter exchange for sugar. Alternatively, it is possible that it is being sent to North Korea to augment its air defence capabilities.

According to IHS and its analysis of open source geographical location data, the ship passed through the Panama Canal destined for Cuba on June 1, then disappeared from the tracking system for 45 days. The BBC notes, “Experts say this may indicate that the crew switched off the system that automatically communicates details of their location.”

Panamanian officials tried to communicate with the vessel, suspecting it was carrying illegal goods initially thought to be drugs.

The crew did not respond, so the ship was boarded and the weaponry was uncovered.

The US has praised Panama’s actions and said it was “aware of the suspected shipment and believed the Panamanian officials were going to stop it,” a US official said, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The head of North Korea’s armed forces met with President Raul Castro in Cuba last month, and discussed "the historical ties that unite the two nations and the common will to continue strengthening them," according to Cuban state media, the BBC reports.

Bruce Bechtol, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst, told USA Today that this was the “first confirmed shipment of weaponry from Cuba to North Korea since the end of the Cold War.”

Some observers say the seizure could impact slowly warming US-Cuban relations. Last month the cold war enemies discussed resuming direct mail services, which have been suspended since 1963, and migration talks were slated to begin today in Washington, according to an Associated Press story published last month.

North Korea has exported weapons on multiple occasions, according to CNN, shipping missiles, weapons technology, and other arms bound for countries including Syria and Myanmar.

Anya Landau French, editor of The Havana Note, a blog on US-Cuba relations, says "we still have more questions than answers" when it comes to understanding Cuba's motivations. 

The news that a North Korean freighter allegedly stuffed with “sophisticated missile equipment” has been intercepted crossing the Panama Canal from Cuba must have many people talking, scratching their heads, and perhaps even flashing back to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Is history repeating itself?  Or is this just a bizarre (badly-executed?) example of Cuba’s knack for extending the life of hold-overs from a bygone era? Are these the military equivalent of Cuba’s famous maquinas, the mid-century American classic cars seemingly impossibly rumbling through the streets of Cuban cities more than half a century later, not out of novelty but necessity?

A statement by Cuba’s Ministry of Foreign Relations was published in the Communist-state-sponsored newspaper Granma yesterday declaring its support for peace and disarmament, noting the weapons on board (two anti-aircraft missile systems, nine missiles “in parts and spares,” two Mig-21 Bis fighter planes, and 15 related engines, according to the paper) were “to be repaired and returned” to Cuba.

The statement explained that the repairs were “supported by the need to maintain our defensive capacity in order to preserve national sovereignty.”

Mexico's government spokesman Eduardo Sanchez (c.) speaks during a news conference in Mexico City, July 15. Sanchez announced that Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, the leader of the Zetas drug cartel, was captured by Mexican Marines before dawn Monday outside the border city of Nuevo Laredo. (Christian Palma/AP)

Capture of Zetas leader may bring more violence (+video)

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 07.16.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

On Monday, Mexican authorities captured Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, leader of the Zetas drug cartel, striking a major blow against the country's most notorious cartel. But experts say that the surprisingly bloodless capture of the man known as Z-40 will likely open the door to new violence in Mexico, as the cartel's factions and rivals fight for control of Zetas turf.

The Dallas Morning News reports that Mr. Treviño Morales was captured near Nuevo Laredo around 3:45 a.m. on Monday morning after being pursued by Mexican authorities. No shots were fired during the pursuit, which ended with Treviño Morales, his bodyguard, and his treasurer in custody. Eduardo Sanchez Hernandez, spokesman for Mexico’s interior secretary, said that authorities found $2 million, nine weapons, and 500 rounds of ammunition in their vehicle.

The Morning News adds that according to authorities, Treviño Morales had been visiting his newborn child in Nuevo Laredo.

Former FBI agent Arturo Fontes told the Morning News that he was surprised that Treviño Morales had been captured alive. “He had told his closest associates he’d rather be captured dead than alive,” he said. But Mr. Fontes added that “This is a huge hit for the new government.”

“History will show that Chapo Guzman [Joaquin “Chapo” Guzman, leader of the Sinaloa cartel] was the bigger narco, but ‘40’ was the villain, the enforcer and game changer, the one who changed the landscape for Mexico, introducing unimaginable violence to the country,” he said.

The Associated Press reports that Treviño Morales "is uniformly described as one of the two most powerful cartel heads in Mexico, the leader of a corps of special forces defectors who went to work for drug traffickers, splintered off into their own cartel in 2010 and metastasized across Mexico, expanding from drug dealing into extortion, kidnapping and human trafficking."

On Trevino Morales' watch, 72 Central and South American migrants were slaughtered by the Zetas in the northern town of San Fernando in 2010, authorities said. By the following year, federal officials announced finding 193 bodies buried in San Fernando, most belonging to migrants kidnapped off buses and killed by the Zetas for various reasons, including their refusal to work as drug mules.

Trevino Morales is charged with ordering the kidnapping and killing of the 265 migrants, [government spokesman] Sanchez said.

But while his capture "is the most important since Enrique Peña Nieto became president in December 2012," writes InSight Crime, a news organization focused on Latin American crime, it "may have the opposite effect than what most expect."

While Treviño was known for his brutal beheadings and gruesome executions of those who were "not aligned" with the Zetas, and he had consolidated his hold on the organization in recent months, his capture may open the door for a full-scale battle for his territories by both the Zetas and their rivals. ...

Although Treviño's brother, Omar, alias Z-42, is the presumed number one, it is not clear that he has the gravitas or the ability to hold this disparate and volatile organization together.

The Zetas have experienced some fracturing in recent years, particularly in October 2012 with the death of the group's top man and Treviño Morales' primary rival, Heriberto Lazcano. Treviño Morales had been able to hold the organization together, InSight writes, "but his capture will reopen the possibilities for his internal rivals to go after the top spot."

Further, Treviño Morales' capture raises the threat of new turf wars between the Zetas and their main competitors, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Gulf Cartel. The Zetas started their existence as the paramilitary enforcers of the Gulf Cartel before breaking away and becoming an independent criminal organization, and have fought several major battles with their rival cartels.

InSight notes that in particular, Nuevo Laredo, "the Zetas' most coveted prize" and a major conduit in the Mexico-US drug trade, "has been in dispute of late" -- and could see more violence if the Sinaloa and the Gulf Cartels now regard the city as up for grabs.

[Nuevo Laredo] saw its highest number homicides on record last year at 288, making it the eighth most violent city in the world, according to a Mexican watchdog group.

The carnage may have been worse than reported: sources close the mayor's office told InSight Crime that authorities had recovered close to 550 bodies during what was an all out war between the Zetas and their rivals in the Sinaloa and Gulf Cartels, which included rocket-propelled grenades and regular gunfights on the city's streets.

Journalist Glenn Greenwald speaks during an interview with the Associated Press in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, July 14, 2013. Greenwald, The Guardian journalist who first reported Edward Snowden's disclosures of U.S. surveillance programs says the former National Security Agency analyst has "very specific blueprints of how the NSA do what they do." (Silvia Izquierdo/AP)

Snowden revelations: What more does he have? (+video)

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 07.15.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

In a pair of interviews this weekend, a key journalist involved in reporting on Edward Snowden's revelations about US spying activities offered new insights into the data the former National Security Agency contractor has yet to reveal – and what sort of leverage he has to dissuade the US from acting against him.

Glenn Greenwald, a columnist for the Guardian and one of the first to report on Mr. Snowden's information, told the Associated Press over the weekend that the ex-contractor has "literally thousands of documents" that are ‘‘basically the instruction manual for how the NSA is built.’’

‘‘In order to take documents with him that proved that what he was saying was true he had to take ones that included very sensitive, detailed blueprints of how the NSA does what they do,’’ the journalist said Sunday in a Rio de Janeiro hotel room. ...

Greenwald said he believes the disclosure of the information in the documents would not prove harmful to Americans or their national security, but that Snowden has insisted they not be made public.

‘‘I think it would be harmful to the U.S. government, as they perceive their own interests, if the details of those programs were revealed,’’ he said.

RECOMMENDED: Briefing NSA surveillance 101: What US intelligence agencies are doing, what they know

Snowden is thought still to be in the transit zone of Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport, where he arrived some three weeks ago from Hong Kong and has remained since. On Friday, he attended a meeting with a number of Russian lawyers and human rights officials and announced that he would seek temporary asylum in Russia until he is able to find a secure route to Latin America, where several countries have offered him permanent asylum. Snowden was photographed at the meeting looking thin but healthy.

Mr. Greenwald told AP that Snowden remains "concerned" about his well-being, "but he’s not going to be in any way paralyzed or constrained in what he thinks he can do as a result of that." Greenwald also addressed the measures that Snowden has taken to dissuade those seeking to harm him for his disclosures, including a much rumored "dead man's switch" that would automatically release more sensitive documents should he be incapacitated.

‘‘It’s not just a matter of, if he dies, things get released, it’s more nuanced than that,’’ Greenwald said. ‘‘It’s really just a way to protect himself against extremely rogue behavior on the part of the United States, by which I mean violent actions toward him, designed to end his life, and it’s just a way to ensure that nobody feels incentivized to do that.’’

In a separate interview published over the weekend, reports Reuters, Greenwald said that publication of Snowden's data in toto would be the US government's "worst nightmare" – suggesting the import of the unreleased documents.

"Snowden has enough information to cause harm to the U.S. government in a single minute than any other person has ever had," Greenwald said in an interview in Rio de Janeiro with the Argentinian daily La Nacion.

"The U.S. government should be on its knees every day begging that nothing happen to Snowden, because if something does happen to him, all the information will be revealed and it could be its worst nightmare."

Greenwald also told the AP that he expects to continue publishing stories on US espionage activities over the next four months. While Snowden has offered to abide by Russian President Vladimir Putin's request that he "stop his work aimed at harming our US partners" in exchange for temporary asylum, Greenwald already has material in hand that he plans to use in future articles.

Upcoming stories would likely include details on ‘‘other domestic spying programs that have yet to be revealed,’’ but which are similar in scope to those he has been reporting on. He did not provide further details on the nature of those programs.

People wait in the transit zone of Terminal F at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow today. Former NSA contractor Edward Snowden asked to meet human rights groups at the airport on Friday to discuss what he called 'threatening behavior' by the United States to prevent him gaining asylum. (Sergei Karpukhin/Reuters)

Show time? Snowden to hold meeting in Moscow Airport

By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / 07.12.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Former US National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden will meet with human rights groups and lawyers today at Moscow's Sheremetyevo International Airport, his first public appearance since arriving in Moscow last month.

Mr. Snowden issued an invitation yesterday to hear a statement on "the next steps forward in my situation." The meeting makes clear his whereabouts – which had become ambiguous amid a slew of asylum requests – at least temporarily.

RIA Novosti reports that Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, a representative of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, lawyer Henrikh Padva, and the head of Russian rights organization “Resistance” were all invited. According to CNN, that list also includes Transparency International and Russian Human Rights Commissioner Vladimir Lukin.

The Financial Times reports that several Russian politicians have also been invited, but Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary told RIA Novosti that Snowden has not requested a meeting with officials.

RIA Novosti adds that, according to Reuters, no journalists will be allowed at the initial meeting, but a press conference will take place later.

According to the Financial Times, Snowden is expected to discuss accusations that he is working for a foreign government and providing intelligence to Russia and China. Quoting Interfax news agency, the Financial Times reports that Snowden “plans to voice his attitude to the US administration’s maniacal campaign of his persecution, as a result of which passengers of flights bound for Latin American countries are now in danger,” a reference to the grounding of the plane carrying Bolivian President Evo Morales last week.

Amnesty International's Seregei Nikitin acknowledged to the Financial Times that there is not much human rights groups can do beyond publicizing his case. The organization's stance on Snowden is that it was “his right to distribute this information" and because it is possible Snowden would be tortured in the US, “he should not be given to the US authorities," Mr. Nikitin said.

CNN reports that a staff member at the Russian office of Human Rights Watch posted the meeting invitation on her Facebook page. Tanya Lokshina wrote in the post that she received the emailed invitation around 5 p.m. yesterday and was unsure if it was real.

In the letter, the writer praises the countries who have offered him support, in the face of what he describes as "an unlawful campaign by officials in the U.S. Government to deny my right to seek and enjoy this asylum."...

The writer invites those addressed to join him at Sheremetyevo Airport "for a brief statement and discussion regarding the next steps forward in my situation."

Snowden arrived in Moscow on June 23 and has since requested asylum in "dozens" of countries, CNN reports. The Washington Post's Max Fisher has tracked Snowden's asylum requests and their responses on a map here.

Reuters reports that it is not as easy as simply finding a country that will harbor him. Despite international aviation rules that allow commercial aircraft to stop in any country without prior permission, Washington has warned of "consequences" for any country that allows Snowden to land or pass through without handing him over. It will be difficult to craft a route that does not enter the airspace of any US ally.

There are no direct commercial flights from Moscow to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia, the three Latin American countries that have offered Snowden asylum. The most obvious route is through Havana but Cuba has not said whether it would allow him to pass through.

Snowden had planned to take a flight to Havana with Aeroflot on June 24, less than 24 hours after his arrival in Moscow, sparking a frenzy of international media demand for tickets on the flight. But airport sources said he pulled out at the last minute, probably because the lane usually flies over the United States.

Assisted by the WikiLeaks anti-secrecy group, Snowden could be looking for flights that hop from one country that is ideologically opposed to the United States to another.

Most long-haul commercial flights heading west from Moscow go over at least one European country. A potential option is a commercial flight to Tehran. He could then try to reach an African country such as Sudan or Angola, which might be ready to risk US wrath. But there are no direct flights from Iran to either country.

Snowden could look at flights east to Shanghai, Beijing, Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh City, but they involve flying over countries that might object, and China has shown no interest in harboring him.

A private charter with a specially tailored route could take him north over the Arctic and then south over the Atlantic, avoiding US and its allies' airspace. A former CIA analyst quoted by Foreign Policy magazine referred to this as the "scenic route" and estimated the journey at 11,000 km.

But where would the plane refuel, who would foot the potentially huge bill and where would Snowden get such a plane? There are no obvious answers.

Mr. Putin has been clear that Russia considers Snowden a "human rights issue" and will not extradite him to the US, despite American requests, RIA Novosti reports. Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said earlier this month, “Snowden himself sincerely believes, for one reason or another, that he is a rights activist, a fighter for the ideals of democracy and human freedom. This is admitted by Russian human rights activists and Russian human rights organizations, and their foreign colleagues.”

Supporters of the ousted Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi, hold his portrait during a demonstration after the Iftar prayer, evening meal when Muslims break their fast during the Islamic month of Ramadan, in Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt, Wednesday July 10, 2013. (Hussein Malla/AP)

With F-16s, Obama signals no US challenge to Egypt coup (+video)

By Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer / 07.11.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

The Obama administration equivocated in its initial comments on last week's military coup in Egypt that removed President Mohamed Morsi from power. But the White House has made the US position much clearer with its announcement yesterday that it will deliver four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt, despite the dubious legality of the ouster. 

If Washington declared Mr. Morsi's removal a coup, the US would be legally required to cut its estimated $1.3 billion in military aid to Cairo. White House spokesman Jay Carney said yesterday it would not be "in the best interests of the United States to make immediate changes to our assistance programs," the BBC reports. The Obama administration has carefully avoided using the word "coup."

The F-16 delivery is an installment of a previously arranged order of 20 planes. Eight have already been delivered, according to the BBC.

The US considers its military ties to Cairo – encapsulated in $40 billion in aid since 1948 and annual military exercises – as one of its most important relationships in the region. It is loathe to do anything to endanger that relationship, even if the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) went ahead with the coup in defiance of US objections, The Wall Street Journal reports. 

In the days leading up to the military takeover on July 3, a set of Hagel-Sisi [US Defense secretary and Egypt's Armed Forces chief] phone calls showed the limits of U.S. influence over the Egyptian military. In the first call, in late June, Mr. Hagel gently cautioned Gen. Sisi against a coup, according to U.S. officials.

After Gen. Sisi publicly warned on July 1 that Egypt's military would intervene if Mr. Morsi failed to resolve the country's political crisis within 48 hours, Mr. Hagel was back on the phone with his counterpart.

This time, Mr. Hagel warned him more forcefully about the potential implications of a coup on the U.S.-Egypt relationship, including Washington's ability to continue to provide military aid, according to officials.

Gen. Sisi was noncommittal, leaving the Obama administration guessing about what the Egyptian military would do next. Gen. Sisi and other military officials told their American counterparts that they didn't want to intervene but would do what was necessary to restore order on the streets. U.S. officials expressed to the Egyptians that it was a mistake to set a deadline because "then, of course, you have to deliver."

US officials worry that the growing influence of the wealthy Gulf monarchies is eroding the importance of following US guidelines. While the US debated whether the ouster was a coup, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait pledged $12 billion in aid. That money comes with "few, if any, clear strings attached," as a senior US official noted to The Wall Street Journal. 

But Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-chairman of the bipartisan Working Group on Egypt, says that the US decline in influence is a myth.

It has become fashionable in today’s “post-American world” milieu to argue that the United States had no ability to shape events in Egypt. This is absurd. The United States is far from being all-powerful, but neither is it powerless. Americans provide $1.5 billion a year in assistance to Egypt, $1.3 billion of which goes to the Egyptian military. It has leverage over the decisions of the IMF and influence with other international donors on whom Egypt’s economy depends. The U.S. ambassador to Egypt wields so much potential influence that Egyptians obsess daily over whom she is meeting, and they concoct wild conspiracies based on trivial events. The assumption in Egypt, as in much of the Arab world, is that nothing happens unless the United States wills it. The problem is not that the United States has no power but that the Obama administration has been either insufficiently interested or too cautious and afraid to use what power the United States has.

Mr. Kagan argues that the only way to correct the US mistake of not trying to head the coup off earlier is to cut aid now – completely.

So now that the military coup has occurred, how do we avoid the “seismic repercussions”? Any answer must begin with a complete suspension of all aid to Egypt, especially military aid, until there is a new democratic government, freely elected with the full participation of all parties and groups in Egypt, including the Muslim Brotherhood. The Obama administration then needs to work closely with other nations and the IMF to ensure that no loans or other forms of economic aid are provided to Egypt until democratic governance is restored. This approach runs contrary to the Obama administration’s instincts, which until now have been to work cooperatively with whoever holds power in Egypt and to avoid overt forms of pressure. 

But John Bolton, the US ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal that cutting off aid to Egypt would be a mistake, even if what happened was a coup. The democratically elected Brotherhood had stopped behaving in a democratic manner, he argues, making the law moot. 

Refraining from unnecessary public statements may be tactically wise now. But what are America's leaders doing behind the scenes as the future of the most populous and influential Arab nation hangs in the balance?

Many Americans, concerned that a "democratically elected" government has been ousted, argue that we should, as current law requires, terminate assistance to Egypt until another election takes place. This view is wrong on several counts.

…

Cutting off US assistance to Egypt now would be seriously mistaken, as would pressuring other donors to withhold financial assistance to rescue Egypt's economy from the deepening morass that Mr. Morsi let it become. Such cutbacks also would send exactly the wrong political message to the factions within Egypt, the Middle East more broadly, and America's friends and allies worldwide. Congress should make a quick, technical statutory fix that allows U.S. aid to continue despite the coup.

Egypt's military deserves the sign of US support that continued assistance would send, especially to counter the deleterious consequences in 2011 when President Hosni Mubarak came under public pressure and President Obama wavered in support, then ultimately tossed Mr. Mubarak aside. Everyone, whatever their politics, agrees that Egypt's economy needs massive assistance.

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In this citizen journalism image, buildings are seen damaged by Syrian government airstrikes and shelling in Aleppo, Syria, Monday, July 8. A month after the US joined France and Britain in accusing the Syrian government of using sarin gas weapons on its own people, a Russian report alleges that sarin was used – but by the Western-backed rebels. (Aleppo Media Center AMC / AP)

Russian report says sarin used in Syria – by rebels

By Arthur Bright, Staff writer / 07.10.13

A month after the United States joined France and Britain in accusing the Syrian government of using sarin gas weapons on its own people, Russian officials have also concluded that sarin was used in Syria – but by the Western-backed rebels.

Deutsche Welle reports that on Tuesday Russian envoy to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin gave UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon Russia's 80-page report, which he said "established" that rebel forces fired a sarin-loaded rocket at Khan al-Assal, a suburb of the battleground city of Aleppo, on March 19.

Russian investigators at a laboratory certified by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said the rocket – known as a Basha'ir-3 – was not a military-standard chemical weapon, and "Therefore, there is every reason to believe that it was armed opposition fighters who used the chemical weapons in Khan al-Assal," said Mr. Churkin.

The Associated Press writes that Churkin said the Basha'ir-3 rocket is a product of "the so-called 'Basha'ir al-Nasr' brigade affiliated with the Free Syrian Army," with production starting in February. He continued that the sarin appeared to be made recently as well.

Churkin said the results indicate [the sarin-loaded rocket] "was not industrially manufactured and was filled with sarin." He said the samples indicated the sarin and the projectile were produced in makeshift "cottage industry" conditions, and the projectile "is not a standard one for chemical use."

The absence of chemical stabilizers, which are needed for long-term storage and later use, indicated its "possibly recent production," said Churkin.

UN spokesman Martin Mesirky said that the Russian report would be "studied," adds Deutsche Welle.

The March 19 attack on Khan al-Assal left at least 27 people dead and dozens injured, reports BBC News, and both Britain and France told the UN in late March that evidence and witnesses suggested that chemical weapons were used on the site. However, both nations and the US last month pointed the finger at the forces of President Bashar al-Assad.

Both the US and Britain expressed doubt about the Russian findings, the BBC adds.

Following Mr Churkin's announcement, a UK government spokesman told the BBC: "We will examine whatever is presented to us, but to date we have seen no credible reporting of chemical weapons use by the Syrian opposition, or that the opposition have obtained chemical weapons."

White House spokesman Jay Carney said the US had also "yet to see any evidence that backs up the assertion that anybody besides the Syrian government has the ability to use chemical weapons, [or] has used chemical weapons".

"Our ability as an international community to investigate the use of chemical weapons in Syria is hampered by Assad's refusal to allow a United Nations investigation."

That Syrian rebels made their own sarin gas, as implied by the Russian report, is not beyond possibility, however. Multiple articles on the Internet describe the process as not difficult, including this November 2001 story by Scientific American, which says there are several "well-known" recipes for the gas. Still, the process is highly dangerous – in a 1995 article concerning that year's sarin gas attack on a Japanese subway, chemical weapons expert Gregory Jones told The Boston Globe that "It's not so hard to manufacture sarin. It's hard to stay alive while making it," as even a single drop of the substance is lethal.

A Chinese marine surveillance ship (r.) sails near a Japanese fishing boat (l.) off one of the disputed islands, called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, July 1. (Kyodo/Reuters)

Japan to China: Stop trying to change the region by force

By Sara Miller Llana, Staff writer / 07.09.13

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Japan has released its first “white paper” since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned to power, claiming China is seeking to “change the status quo by force.”

The report ratchets up tensions between the two countries, which have simmered in recent months over the territorial dispute over uninhabited island in the East China Sea.

According to the report, quoted by The Wall Street Journal:

[China] resorts to tactics viewed as high-handed, including attempts to use force to change the status quo, as it insists on its own unique assertions that are inconsistent with the order of the international law ... Among them are dangerous actions that could lead to unintended consequences. In a way, this makes us concerned where we are headed.

China has already counterattacked by calling the annual report full of “untruthful accusations.”

China's maritime activities are lawful and peaceful, while Japan has recently “played up the China threat, causing tensions and confrontation," said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, according to Voice of America, adding; "And the international community cannot help but worry over where Japan is heading.”

This year's report contains “more nationalist rhetoric and adopted a far more vigilant tone than in previous years in describing the regional security challenges the country faces and how it plans to respond to them,” according to The Wall Street Journal.   

That's a worrisome development for both sides that say resolution seems increasingly difficult, as The Christian Science Monitor reported in March.

"I don't see a way out," says Akihisa Nagashima, a former deputy Japanese Defense minister. "It is very unfortunate, but we do not have a solution."

"It will be very hard for China's new leaders to give up their political stand on the Diaoyu islands," says Sun Zhe, who teaches international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing, using the Chinese name for the islands known in Japan as the Senkaku.

The two countries, Professor Sun worries, "may be falling into a deep trap and a black hole of misperceptions that create miscalculations."

The territorial dispute has lasted for decades between the two nations but hit a low in September, after Japan purchased three of five islands by a private owner.

The tone of the defense report might be political, as a professor in Tokyo tells Bloomberg News: 

The criticism of China echoes comments Prime Minister Abe made in recent television appearances ahead of an upper house election on July 21, where his ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner are seeking a majority.

“Of course Abe wants to ratchet up the China threat in the build-up to the elections, because that’s his trump card,” said Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo. Mr. Abe emphasized security issues before his landslide lower house poll victory in December.

The white paper outlines the first budget increase for defense in 11 years. And it's worried Japan's other neighbors as well.

Even though it criticizes nuclear development in North Korea, it has also angered South Korea, as VOA notes: 

South Korea – also a potential target of rival North's forces – is joining China in criticizing the Japanese document. That is because the annual paper – as it has since 2005 – asserts a territorial claim over a rocky outcrop, covering less than one-fifth of a square kilometer, held by South Korea (known as Dokdo in Korean and Takeshima in Japanese).