Afghan election: Can Karzai's rivals close the gap?

Still, Ghani's campaign team is hopeful of selling its ideas to the public. "Our campaign strategy is to focus on making it a referendum of the last five years ... This election will not be about cheap deals. Our strategic partnerships will be with the people," says Ajmal Abidy, a spokesman.

Likelihood of runoff grows

According to a May poll conducted by the International Republican Institute, Karzai leads with 31 percent of the vote, with Abdullah at 7 percent and Ghani at 2 percent.

But some observers say the gap is narrowing. Karzai's rivals are increasingly likely to prevent him from winning more than 50 percent, which is necessary to avoid a runoff, say Mir and Professor Safi.

Gauging just how much the numbers are changing is an arduous task in Afghanistan, given the insurgency in the country's south, and a shortage of fixed phone lines and the absence in some places of area codes.

Other indicators that can be used to measure a campaign's momentum are number of posters, number of visits by tribal leaders to campaign headquarters, and the number of paid advertisements on television, according to Mir. Based on these metrics, it appears that the field may be closing, he says.

Karzai still holds election aces

Despite his rivals' recent gains, Karzai still holds many aces for the Aug. 20 presidential election.

"He's still a very skillful player. The manner in which he's been able to neutralize and co-opt his political opponents shows that," says Haroun Mir, director of Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies, referring to the support that Mr. Karzai secured from Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, Hazara leader Hajji Mohammad Mohaqiq, and the influential governor of Nangarhar, Gul Agha Sherzai. Critics claim these opponents have been "bought" with dozens of promised ministries and governorships.

Karzai also successfully fended off legal challenges registered against his two vice-presidential running mates, Mohammed Qasim Fahim and Karim Khalili, for their alleged links to war crimes. Late last month the independent Afghanistan Rights Monitor called on the United States and United Nations to intervene, in a report entitled "The Winning Warlords."

Karzai's control of the machinery of the state may also prove useful, says Wadir Safi, a politics professor at Kabul University.

Many residents in Kabul, like Muhammad Yousaf, a farmer, say they will vote for Karzai. "He has built many roads including one from Turkham to Jalalabad. It was a very long trip, but now it's easy."

Some of Kabul's educated youth appear inclined to support the challengers. On a surprise visit to Kabul University Monday morning, Abdullah attracted an audience of more than 800 students eager to catch a glimpse of the war hero. "Long live the resistance, long live Abdullah," they chanted.

Later, after the rally dispersed, first-year medical student Ali Abdullah complained that "Karzai has shown no progress, he hasn't done anything for the people." He says he will vote for "either [Abdullah] Abdullah or [Ashraf] Ghani," Karzai's main election rivals.

Hameeda Jan, a science lecturer, said she will vote for Mr. Ghani "because he is an educated man and qualified to run things."

----

Follow us on Twitter.

Previous

1 | 2 | 3