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As Sudan referendum nears, the south isn't only place facing changes

While the referendum portends huge changes for South Sudan, which is likely to become independent, it will also bring political changes to the north, including a possible return to sharia law.

By Amanda HsiaoGuest blogger / January 7, 2011

A southern Sudanese man dances during a rally in Juba Jan. 7. Most analysts expect the south to secede after a January 9 referendum which is the result of a 2005 peace deal ending Africa's longest civil war.

Goran Tomasevic/Reuters

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As the international spotlight on South Sudan’s referendum shines even brighter at two days and counting, little attention has been directed at the political posturing that escalated in the North over the holidays. As stakeholders in the North imagine the possible political reconfigurations in a post-secession Sudan, it should be remembered that the political relations that emerge in a new northern state have everything to do with the future of marginalized areas – Darfur, Blue Nile, South Kordofan, the East – and the potential for the resumption of mass violence across the country.

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Questions of the type of state the North will become in the event of secession were brought to the fore when, in mid-December, President Omar al-Bashir said, according to The New York Times: “We’ll change the Constitution. Shariah and Islam will be the main source for the Constitution, Islam the official religion and Arabic the official language.”

He also said, alarmingly: “If South Sudan secedes, we will change the Constitution, and at that time there will be no time to speak of diversity of culture and ethnicity.”

The North is currently governed under Sharia law, but the 2005 peace agreement that ended the civil war called for all legislation to “take into account the religious and cultural diversity of the Sudanese people.”

Bashir’s declaration drew condemnation from many northern constituencies, including the Darfur rebel group Justice and Equality Movement and, according to The Citizen newspaper, civil society from Blue Nile and the Nuba Mountains – representatives of populations who have long been marginalized by the ruling regime.

For their part, northern opposition groups are maneuvering with an eye to the future as well. Major opposition party leader Sadiq al-Mahdi has been calling for an interim government to write a new constitution, conduct new elections, and resolve the Darfur conflict. If the ruling regime refuses to concede to these demands by Jan. 26, al-Mahdi warned, he would work to overthrow the regime. A number of other opposition groups have also now adopted his ultimatum.

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