In Somalia, African Union takes the offensive in information war

AMISOM has started to impress people in the past month just by "holding on under incredibly difficult conditions," says one regional analyst, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of his work. "They've risen to the challenge."

False rumors of evacuation

Rumors that the mission is considering evacuation, following fears that the insurgents would topple the government, are "absolutely out of the question," Bwakira says.

The government, too, has sung AMISOM's praises. This week, President Ahmed said AMISOM was playing an "important and needed" role in securing peace and stability in Somalia.

"We are grateful for their commitment to the Somali people," he said.

AMISOM has often been ridiculed for securing just the few city blocks of the capital that remain under government control after the insurgents gained ground in recent weeks.

But AMISOM insists the insurgents don't control nearly as much territory as they claim.

"They control territory for a portion of an hour. Then they go," Bwakira says, calling it a "hit and run" approach.

AMISOM has no mandate to be involved in the fighting, except in self-defense. But Bwakira says the often-cited figure of 1,500 or so Shabab fighters in the capital – the majority of them forced conscripts or paid fighters, he charges – are no match for troops from two of Africa's best armies.

Analysts estimate that there are several thousand insurgents nationally, including Shabab, but the figures are hard to confirm, as fighters realign themselves and insurgent groups enter towns, conscript fighters for short periods of time, and then move on. The recent fighting was not an example of the insurgents' strength, analysts say, but rather, of the government's weakness at the time.

"If we were to get into fighting," Bwakira says, "I tell you these Shabab will not last one single day – not one single day."

Allow offensive action?

During the heavy fighting last week, one of the many ideas thrown around was an amendment to AMISOM's mandate that would allow it to take offensive action, the regional analyst says.

But he says such a move would be a "bad idea" because of Somali mistrust for foreign troops on their soil. Opposition groups have already used AMISOM's presence as a rallying point.

For now, Bwakira says, the mission prefers to focus on dialogue and reconciliation.

"AMISOM is active in Mogadishu, but the African Union role in Somalia is much bigger than Mogadishu," he says. "We are looking to assist the international community to formulate a policy that will bring Somalia back into peace."

Could AMISOM be seen as a model for Africans solving their own problems?

"Africa wants to resolve its problems, but this problem is an international problem. It's absolutely not an exclusively African problem," Bwakira says.

He complains of a lack of support from the international community. The AU has been calling for a UN force to replace it, as was originally envisaged. In the meantime, the information war continues.

"We have never tried to use our capacity to crush theses forces," Bwakira says of the insurgents, but "we have a capacity more than they can imagine."

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