Ballot measures: What message did America send on Election Day? (+video)
American voters rejected ballot measures at a higher rate than usual – suggesting voter fatigue – but two big liberal social issues - legalizing marijuana and same-sex marriage - made historic headway.
Some 174 ballot measures in 38 states on issues ranging from education to public unions to physician-assisted suicide provide many messages to America. But Wednesday morning, two important takeaways seemed clear, several political analysts say.Skip to next paragraph
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First, only 76 percent of the of the 115 measures put on the ballot by state legislatures passed, which is down slightly from the 85-plus percent average from 2000 to 2010, according to Jennie Bowser of the National Conference of State Legislatures. Forty-one percent of 42 voter initiatives passed.
“It’s fair to say that voters took a more negative view of statewide ballot measures this year than they usually do,” she says via e-mail.
Second, the historic success of same-sex marriage ballot measures, as well as the legalization of recreational marijuana in two states, points to evolving trends in American culture.
“If there's one trend that emerges out of the many ballot measures, it's selective social liberalism,” says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California. Legal marijuana and same-sex marriage “were fringe issues a generation ago.”
The more negative view of ballot measures is a result of ballot fatigue after the number of ballot measures skyrocketed in the late 1980s and early '90s, says Ms. Bowser. From the 1980s to the late '90s, the number of measures on the ballot in an average year nearly tripled, she says.
Meanwhile, campaigns for initiatives increasingly involved huge amounts of money and advertising, including mailers as well as – in richer campaigns – blanket television ads, cajoling voters to “read this more carefully … this measure is not what it sounds like.” Some of this money poured in from out of state, increasing many voters' suspicion of the motivations for the initiatives.
After a while, Bowser says, the voters realize they must invest more and more time to figure out their positions. “They sort of conclude, ‘Why do you keep asking me all of this?’ ” she says. And the default position becomes a rejection. “I don’t know the policy, so I’m voting no,” she says.
Others agree. “I’m a professor who looks at initiatives for a living, and I’m overwhelmed by this,” says Barbara O’Connor, director emeritus of the Institute for Study of Politics and Media at California State University, Sacramento.
She notes that California had 11 propositions on the ballot Tuesday. “You’d have to surmise that the average voter can’t help but see this as a lot of work. When they are already mad at politicians and the system, that can’t help matters.”
But others say voters' memories aren't so long. “I don’t think voters at all behave in the current year based on the numbers of measures five or 10 years ago,” says John Matsusaka, director of the Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California.
'Selective social liberalism'
The success of gay marriage, in particular, was stunning Tuesday. Previously, 31 states had considered ballot measures on gay marriage, and all 31 had voted against gay marriage. On Tuesday, that reversed completely. Maine voters legalized same-sex marriage, and Maryland voters passed a referendum backing the gay-marriage law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor earlier this year. Exit polls show Washington State was poised to do the same. (Washington's mail-in ballots mean the vote has not been counted yet.) Meanwhile, Minnesota rejected a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage.