Why Rick Santorum has only a 1 percent chance of stopping Mitt Romney

When the Republicans gather in Tampa, Fla., in August, the news media would love nothing more than a brokered or contested convention.

A convention that starts with any doubt about the identity of the nominee guarantees news. Otherwise it’s just a pep rally.

But as things look today, chances are slim that the Republicans won’t know in advance who they’re nominating, says Josh Putnam, an expert on “delegate math.”

“There’s a less than 1 percent chance that we go to a deadlocked convention or contested convention,” says Mr. Putnam, a political scientist at Davidson College in North Carolina. Putnam also writes the Frontloading HQ blog, where he crunches the numbers and explains the varying and complicated ways each state awards delegates.

Baked into Putnam’s “1 percent” assertion is his forecast that April will be good to Republican front-runner Mitt Romney.

“He will potentially do quite well throughout April and be able to peel off quite a few delegates in those states,” he says.

Seven states plus the District of Columbia hold primaries in April. The states are Maryland, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. All but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, home state of Romney’s top rival, Rick Santorum, are Romney territory, as is the District, where Mr. Santorum isn’t on the ballot.

Even before April, Romney stands to rack up a solid share of delegates. Puerto Rico, which holds winner-take-all caucuses on Sunday, is now a sure thing for Romney after Santorum’s gaffe on Wednesday, asserting that Puerto Ricans must adopt English as the official language if they want statehood.

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