The American Century isn't over
America is still uniquely valued around the world – and Barack Obama can build on that.
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Additionally, painful as it will be domestically, global recession ultimately will probably hurt other nations more than the United States. In China, Russia, Southeast Asia, and the poorer oil producers, economic downturns risk serious social and political upheavals. And in the developed world, neither the major European economies nor Japan are faring significantly better than the US. In relative terms, then, American power is not likely to decline as a result of the slump.Skip to next paragraph
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While these factors only mitigate the consequences of the financial and economic crises, they also suggest that the US could emerge stronger on a relative basis.
The US brings unique assets to the daunting challenges it faces. One is its extraordinary regenerative ability. In few other societies could a man with a name and background as exotic as Mr. Obama's hope to win much more than a seat on the city council. Though entrenched incumbents in the US are many, the barriers to entry into the highest echelons of public office are unusually low by international standards, as Obama, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Michael Bloomberg, and Bobby Jindal have demonstrated. Newness in itself is no guarantee of quality, but on balance is far preferable to rigid oligopolies. Japan, with four children or grandchildren of prime ministers (including the premier) in the cabinet, illustrates this.
Beyond political dynamism, US society continues to display a flexibility and openness that gives it not only renewal potential but also – despite its flaws – a high degree of competitiveness. It is no accident that so many of the discoveries, innovations, and new businesses and industries that are defining the early 21st century originate in America.
Finally, demography is a distinct advantage. The futures of Europe, Russia, Japan, and China are clouded by below-replacement fertility, in many cases low or near-zero immigration, and a rapidly aging citizenry. Though the US is not immune to population aging, its higher level of fertility combined with immigration gives it an enormous advantage.
Rebuilding a stable basis for American global leadership will of course require, among other things, changes in policy and strategy that restore the complex balance between diplomacy and force, and between consensus and coercion, so recklessly discarded during the Bush years. However, if the US is able to overcome the economic challenges of the coming years – something that cannot be taken for granted – there are structural and cultural factors that could cause it to emerge as an even more influential actor on the world stage.
Robert Dujarric is director of the Institute of Contemporary Japanese Studies at Temple University Japan in Tokyo. Andy Zelleke is a lecturer in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and codirector of its Center for Public Leadership.