Retail sales down in March

Retail sales declined 0.4 percent in March 2013, according to the US Census Bureau's latest nominal read of retail sales.

By , Guest blogger

  • close
    Retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42 percent in March 2013 and slipped 0.64 percent below the level seen in March 2012.
    View Caption

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released its latest nominal read of retail sales showing a decline of 0.4% from February, but a gain of 2.8% on a year-over-year basis on an aggregate of all items including food, fuel and healthcare services. 

Nominal "discretionary" retail sales including home furnishings, home garden and building materials, consumer electronics and department store sales declined 0.42% from February and slipped 0.64% below the level seen in March 2012 while, adjusting for inflation, “real” discretionary retail sales declined a notable 2.27% over the same period. 

On a “nominal” basis, there had appeared to be “rough correlation” between strong home value appreciation and strong retail spending preceding the housing bust and an even stronger correlation when home values started to decline. 

Recommended: The most expensive items on Amazon

Chart 1 shows the year-over-year change to nominal discretionary retail sales and the year-over-year change to nominal the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite home price index since 1993 and since 2000. 

As you can see there is, at the very least, a coincidental change to home values and consumer spending during the boom and then the bust, but as home values have continued to decline, retail spending has remained low but has not continued to consistently contract. 

Looking at chart 2, adjusted for inflation (CPI for retail sales, CPI “less shelter” for S&P/Case-Shiller Composite) the “rough correlation” between the year-over-year change to the “discretionary” retail sales series and the year-over-year S&P/Case-Shiller Composite series seems now even more significant. 

The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here.To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on paper-money.blogspot.com.

Share this story:
 
 
Make a Difference
Inspired? Here are some ways to make a difference on this issue.
Follow Stories Like This
Get the Monitor stories you care about delivered to your inbox.
 

We want to hear, did we miss an angle we should have covered? Should we come back to this topic? Or just give us a rating for this story. We want to hear from you.

Loading...

Loading...

Loading...