Paper Economy
This chart shows FHFA's national monthly home price index over the past decade. Home prices perked up in March, rising 2.69 percent above the level seen in March 2011. (SoldAtTheTop)
Home prices increase
Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released the latest results of their monthly house price index (HPI) showing that in March, nationally, home prices increased 1.78% since February rising 2.69% above the level seen in March 2011.
The FHFA monthly HPI are formulated from home purchase information collected from mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
This chart shows the annual rate of initial and continued unemployment claims over the past three years. Initial claims dropped by 2,000 from last week. (SoldAtTheTop)
Unemployment claims drop
Today’s jobless claims report showed a notable declined to both initial and continued unemployment claims while seasonally adjusted initial claims continued to trend well below the closely watched 400K level.
Seasonally adjusted “initial” declined to 370,000 claims from last week’s revised 372,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 29,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.6%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 2.93 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 3.15 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 6.08 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.
This chart shows the average interest rates for 15- and 30-year fixed rate mortgages over the past five years. Since peaking in 2008, rates have fallen to record lows. (SoldAtTheTop)
Mortgage rates slide to record lows
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 2 basis points to 3.83% since last week, the lowest value on on record for this MBA series, while the purchase application volume declined 3.0% and the refinance application increased 5.6% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
This chart shows the annual number of existing single family home sales since 2007. Sales climbed 3.4 percent in April and 10 percent above the level seen in April 2011. (SoldAtTheTop)
Existing home sales on the rise
Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for April showing an increase in sales with total home sales climbing 3.4% since March rising 10% above the level seen in April 2011.
Single family home sales also improved rising 3.0% from March and 9.9% above the level seen in April 2011 while the median selling price increased 10.4% above the level seen in April 2011.
Inventory of single family homes increased 10.9% from March dropping 18.8% below the level seen in April 2011 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 6.6 months.
The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005.
This chart shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) since 2000. The composite index of 85 economic indicators showed that the national economy improved in April. (SoldAtTheTop)
Chicago Fed: US economy improving
Today’s release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed improvement for the national economy with the index increasing from last month to stand at 0.11 while the three month moving average also declined to -0.06.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”.
The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.
A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.
This chart shows the rate of seriously delinquent single family loans since 2003. Since peaking in 2010, the rate of delinquent loans has dropped considerably, but remains high. (SoldAtTheTop)
Fannie Mae: delinquent loans dropping
The latest release of the Fannie Mae Monthly Summary indicated that total serious single family delinquency declined slightly in March while remaining at distressed levels.
In March, 2.93% of non-credit enhanced loans went seriously delinquent while the level was 8.35% of credit enhanced loans resulting in an overall total single family delinquency of 3.67%.
The following charts (click for larger ultra-dynamic and surf-able chart) show what Fannie Mae terms the count of “Seriously Delinquent” loans as a percentage of all loans on their books.
It’s important to understand that Fannie Mae does NOT segregate foreclosures from delinquent loans when reporting these numbers.
This chart shows, in thousands, the number of single family housing permits issued annually over the past decade. Permits increased notably in April, but remain well below the peak numbers seen at the height of the housing bubble. (SoldAtTheTop)
Housing permits on the rise
Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed gains in April with single family permits increasing from March while starts also increased over the same period.
Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased a notable 1.9% from March to 475K single family units (SAAR), and increased 18.5% above the level seen in April 2011 but still remained an astonishing 73.58% below the peak in September 2005.
Single family housing starts increased 2.3% from March to 492K units (SAAR), and climbed 18.8% above the level seen in April 2011 and remained a stunning 73.01% below the peak set in early 2006.
This chart shows the average interest rates of 15-and 30-year fixed rate mortgages over the past five years. Since peaking at the height of the housing bubble, rates have declined steadily and are now consistently averaging under 4 percent. (SoldAtTheTop)
Mortgage rates inch down to 3.91 percent
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications.
The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 1 basis point to 3.91% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 3.4% and the refinance application increased 1.3% over the same period.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).
This chart shows the monthly and annual increase in the participation in the federal food stamp program as it correlates to the unemployment rate since 2004. While unemployment has dropped, food stamp participation has continued to increase on a year over year basis. (SoldAtTheTop)
Food stamp use continues to rise
As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.
In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak (which looks like a minor blip by comparison) set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.
The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in February, 123,385 recipients were removed from the food stamps program with the current total still increasing 4.81% on a year-over-year basis while household participation increased 6.56%.
Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 3.26% over the same period.
Participation continues to swell with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 4.61% on a year-over-year basis to $6.16 billion for the month.
This chart shows the value of Radar Logic's composite value index of home prices over the past decade. Home prices dropped from March of 2011, but are expected to pick up as the more active spring selling season gets underway. (SoldAtTheTop)
Radar logic: Housing prices are dropping
As I have noted in the past, since the home price index data provided by Radar Logic is more timely, unadjusted and un-smoothed it is particularly useful for gaining deeper visibility over our housing markets.
As for the latest trends, it’s important to note that the 25-MSA Composite is showing significant year-over-year declines while prices continue to bounce from the lows set in late-January.
The latest data shows that as of early-March, prices have declined 2.71% below the level seen in March 2011 continuing the pattern of past years with prices now heading higher as the data moves into the typically more active spring selling season.
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