Paper Economy

At 50.7 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 1.17 percent since March 2013 and dropped 6.28 percent below the level seen a year earlier. That's an indication of slowing manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month. (SoldAtTheTop)

Manufacturing activity declines in April

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 05.01.13

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity declined in April.

At 50.7 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 1.17% since March and dropped 6.28% below the level seen a year earlier giving an indication of slowing manufacturing activity for the second consecutive month.

Respondents appear generally positive overall with many citing strong trends and steady pace: 

"Business can be described as flat at best." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)  ( Continue… )

Private employment in the US improved in April as private employers added 119,000 jobs, according to ADP. (SoldAtTheTop)

ADP: Private staffers add 119,000 jobs in April

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 05.01.13

Today, private staffing and business services firm ADP released the latest installment of their National Employment Report indicating that the situation for private employment in the U.S. improved in April as private employers added 119,000 jobs in the month bringing the total employment level 1.57% above the level seen in April 2012. 

Perusing the rest of the data in the ADP dataset you can see the the economy is currently showing the most growth for small to mid-sized service providing jobs with goods-producing jobs remaining near trough levels. 

Look for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report to likely show somewhat similar trends. 

The latest Case-Shiller home prices data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions. (SoldAtTheTop)

Case-Shiller: Home prices surge in February

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.30.13

Today's release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for February reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index increased for a straight month rising 0.37% since January while the Composite-20 index increased 0.29% over the same period. 

The latest CSI data is continuing to demonstrate more resiliency than seen in recent years as prices continue to move up even in the face of typically lower seasonal transactions. 

If this trend continues, rather than declining as has been seen in past years, prices may just remain flat into the March-April release in advance of the typical uplift from the more active spring transactions.

The 10-city composite index increased 8.60% as compared to February 2012 while the 20-city composite increased 9.32% over the same period. 

Both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -29.63% for the 10-city national index and -29.03% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis. 

This chart shows the seasonally adjusted national pending home sales index along with the percent change on a year-over-year basis as well as the percent change from the peak set in 2005. (SoldAtTheTop)

Pending home sales climb 1.5 percent in March

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.29.13

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Report for March showing that pending home sales improved with the seasonally adjusted national index climbing 1.5% from February and increasing 7.0% above the level seen in March 2012. 

Meanwhile, the NARs chief economist Lawrence Yun is beginning to adopt the "narrow range" sentiment of years past as limited supply works to mute sales activity:

"Contract activity has been in a narrow range in recent months, not from a pause in demand but because of limited supply. Little movement is expected in near-term sales closings, but they should edge up modestly as the year progresses, ... Job additions and rising household wealth will continue to support housing demand."

The economy grew slower than most hoped in Q1 2013, with GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent from Q4 2012. (SoldAtTheTop)

GDP shows 2.5 percent growth in Q1

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.26.13

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their first "estimate" of the Q1 2013 GDP report showing that the economy grew in the quarter with real GDP improving at an annualized rate of 2.5% from Q4 2012. 

On a year-over-year basis, real GDP increased 1.80% while the quarter-to-quarter non-annualized percent change was an increase of 0.62%. 

The latest quarterly results indicate that the most notable source of weakness in the economy came from declines in government spending particularly on national defense with a 11.5% decline in federal national defense spending from Q4. 

Residential investment, on the other hand, worked to buoy the overall fixed investment component growing at an annualized rate of 12.6% from Q3. 

Keep in mind that these results are likely very poorly estimated and are sure to be revised notably in following quarters and even years to come.

Thursday's jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims decline by 16,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.25.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed a decline to both initial and continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. 

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims declined by 16,000 to 339,000 claims from 355,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 93,000 claims to 3.0 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.3%. 

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.79 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.20 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 4.99 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls. 

The National Association of Realtors Existing Home Sales Report for March showing total home sales declining 0.6 percent since February. (SoldAtTheTop)

Home sales fall 0.6 percent in March

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.22.13

Today, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for March showing a decrease in sales with total home sales declining 0.6% since February but still climbing 10.3% above the level seen in March 2012. 

Single family home sales also declined falling 0.2% from February but still rose 9.1% above the level seen in March 2012 while the median selling price increased a notable 12.1% above the level seen a year earlier. 

Inventory of single family homes increased from February to 1.69 million units dropping 16.3% below the level seen in March 2012 which, along with the sales pace, resulted in a monthly supply of 4.7 months. 

The following charts (click for full-screen dynamic version) shows national existing single family home sales, median home prices, inventory and months of supply since 2005. 

Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 to 352,000 claims from 348,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted continued claims declined by 35,000 claims to 3.068 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4 percent. (SoldAtTheTop)

Jobless claims rise by 4,000

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.18.13

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to initial unemployment claims and a decline to continued unemployment claims as initial claims trended well below the closely watched 400K level. 

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment claims increased by 4,000 to 352,000 claims from 348,000 claims for the prior week while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims declined by 35,000 claims to 3.068 million resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 2.4%. 

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls. 

Currently there are some 1.78 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits. 

Taken together with the latest 3.29 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 5.07 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls. 

Mortgage rates declined 4 basis points to 3.52 percent since last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. (SoldAtTheTop)

Mortgage rates drop to 3.52 percent

By SoldAtTheTop, Guest blogger / 04.17.13

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. 

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases. 

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) declined 4 basis points to 3.52% since last week while the purchase application volume increased 4% and the refinance application volume increased 5% over the same period.