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Chicago Fed index shows weakening economy

An index used by the Chicago Federal Reserve that measures national economic activity declined in August to stand at a very weak -0.87. 

By Guest blogger / September 24, 2012

This chart shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index since 2001. The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity

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The latest release of the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) showed a worsening of the national economy with the index declining from the prior month to stand at a very weak -0.87 while the three month moving average also declined near contraction territory at -0.47. 

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Writer, The PaperEconomy Blog

'SoldAtTheTop' is not a pessimist by nature but a true skeptic and realist who prefers solid and sustained evidence of fundamental economic recovery to 'Goldilocks,' 'Green Shoots,' 'Mustard Seeds,' and wholesale speculation.

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The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of “production and income”, “employment, unemployment and income”, “personal consumption and housing” and “sales, orders and inventories”. 

The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth. 

A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession. 

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