World watches key Lebanon vote

A Hizbullah victory would strain ties with the US and with pro-Western nations like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.

By Tom A. Peter

posted June 07, 2009 at 9:50 am EST

• A daily summary of global reports on security issues .

Lebanon and much of the international community are waiting with baited breath as citizens cast their votes in the nation's parliamentary election on Sunday. More than 200 international observers are overseeing the election, which is in a dead heat between the Western-backed March 14 faction and the Hizbullah-led coalition supported by Iran and Syria.

The outcome of the election will likely determine not only much about the future of Lebanon's internal politics, but it also stands to reshape international relations in the Middle East. Top US officials have implied that military aid may be reduced if the militant Hizbullah wins a majority of the parliament. A Hizbullah victory would strain ties with pro-Western nations like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, it may send Iran a signal that its aggressive stance toward the West and Israel is well received in the region.

Lebanese television stations have reported heavy voter turn-out so far, with a number of Lebanese citizens who live overseas returning home for the elections. There are 128 available seats in the parliament and three million eligible voters in Lebanon. The Gulf News reports that security is tight, with nearly 55,000 soldiers and policemen securing the countries 1,700 voting centers.

The country is divided between two main coalitions. The March 14 bloc is aligned with pro-Western interests and is the current ruling party. It is competing against the Hizbullah-led, March 8 opposition bloc that includes Christian and pro-Syrian groups. Lebanon's Daily Star reports that neither bloc is expected to win a decisive victory.

Polling suggests that the elections will be decided by a small margin of votes in a select number of districts. Either of the blocs could take a slim majority, according to analysts, but neither is expected to win a definitive mandate. In addition, the presence of several independents, with a declared allegiance to the president, has the potential to prevent either side from winning a majority, which would force the formation of a unity government.

The country's Christians are expected to be the "king makers" in this election, reports Al Jazeera. The group is heavily divided and remains active in both blocs. This fluid group will likely produce Lebanon's swing voters.

The Daily Kos, a liberal blog, offers a historical context for the elections and a basic overview of its major players.

If the Hizbullah-led March 8 bloc wins a majority in the elections, it may place the US in a difficult position. In an interview with The Los Angles Times, Lebanon analyst Paul Salem says that while a Hizbullah win will cause concern for the new American administration, their response will likely be more "nuanced" than the US government's response when Hamas took control of Gaza.

In the US there will definitely be a negative reaction from Congress and certain corners of the press but I think the administration will await the formation of the government. I think they are going to express concern but put a lot of emphasis on the formation of the government after the elections.

Both Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have spoken out strongly against Hizbullah, saying that the victory of the Shiite group would cause a negative reaction from the US. Stephen Zunes, a Middle Eastern studies professor at the University of San Francisco writes on the Huffington Post that Mr. Biden and Ms. Clinton's support for Israel during its 2006 war with Hizbullah remains a point of contention in Lebanon that may add an additional layer of complication to future political responses.

Despite exhaustive empirical studies by Human Rights Watch and other groups which found no evidence that any of the civilian deaths were caused by Hizbullah using civilians as "human shields," both Clinton and Biden – without providing any contradictory evidence – have insisted that they did and have refused to acknowledge any wrongdoing by the Israeli government. Even moderate and secular Lebanese, who strongly opposed Hizbullah's provocative actions (used by the Israelis and their American supporters to launch the offensive), still harbor enormous resentment toward the Bush administration and those in Congress who supported this devastating war against their country.

In Israel, there has been much concern for Israel's security amid speculation that Hizbullah could win majority control of Lebanon's parliament. In Israel's Haaretz newspaper an article provocatively titled "Would Hizbullah win in Lebanon election lead to war with Israel?" reported that in some highly contested cities candidates are spending up to $1,500 per vote to win a support base that will carry them to victory.

Israel is worried that the election will be won by Hizbullah and its allies – Nabih Beri's Shiite party Amal and former general Michel Aoun's Maronite Christian party. The presumption is that such a victory would increase the danger of war between Israel and Lebanon. It has already been forgotten that the two Lebanon wars and the offensives in between took place when Hizbullah was not in the coalition or participating in government.