• OGAZALEAD_P1
• csmli-1
• stem-1

• OGAZALEAD_P2
• csmli-2
• stem-2

Gaza fighting pauses, but is the war over?

Hamas and Israel have not agreed to terms of a mutual cease-fire agreement, worrying many that the war will soon start up again.

from the January 20, 2009 edition

Page 2 of 2

Page 1 | 2

But with no breakthrough imminent, Israel decided to go it alone and declare a one-sided cease-fire, signaling a reliance on the unilateralism that the ruling Kadima Party first became famous for when the controversial Ariel Sharon, then prime minister, decided to pull troops and settlers out of Gaza in August 2005 with no Palestinian partner or coordination.

Following the Israeli cease-fire decision on Saturday, Hamas announced its own self-declared truce the next day, saying that it would give Israeli forces a week to get out of Gaza, and they did not, Hamas would resume rocketing Israeli towns.

Israel's decision now to end its campaign in Gaza, which began on Dec. 27 in a bid to stop rocket attacks on southern Israel, evinced some disappointment from Cairo because it was seen as circumventing Egypt's initiative.

A summit meeting in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, on Sunday, attended by several European leaders, was in part an effort to reaffirm the importance of Egypt's role, analysts say.

"Egypt withstood much criticism from Syria, from Iran, from Palestinians around the world, who say that Egypt should cut off its relations with Israel. But in the end, the summit proved that Egypt is the only partner who was able to stop the Israeli operation and get them to declare a cease-fire in Gaza," says Emad Gad, head of the Israel unit at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.

"Egypt is working now to lift the embargo on Gaza, to open the passages, and to work against all kinds of smuggling," says Mr. Gad.

"The war in Gaza proves to Syria and Iran that they have no alternatives like the ones we have. They support the Palestinians by speeches, but Egypt is the one that changes the situation on the ground," Gad adds. "I think the ultimate lesson to everyone is that we have moderate Arab countries – like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia – and if you want to settle the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, you need to deal with these countries."

Still unclear is how smuggling into Gaza from Egypt will be curtailed. Egypt rejects the possibility of placing international forces on the Egyptian side of the border, viewing this as a violation of its sovereignty. Rather, officials in Cairo have indicated that they would favor deployment of international troops on the Palestinian side of Rafah, the border town, but so far Hamas has treated that as a nonstarter. Another proposal suggested that forces loyal to the Fatah-run Palestinian Authority would control the border, but this was rejected by Hamas.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, speaking at a summit of Arab leaders in Kuwait, virtually blamed Hamas for inviting Israel's military offensive in Gaza when it refused to extend the six-month cease-fire, which expired on Dec. 19. Palestinian militants in Gaza had already started launching rockets in the days before, citing that Israel was keeping the borders closed.

"You all know about efforts Egypt undertook to extend the cease-fire and our warnings that a refusal by factions to extend it was an open invitation to Israeli aggression," Mr. Mubarak said. He promised to continue working to try to achieve a national unity government in order to rebuild and rehabilitate Gaza.

Both sides in the war have begun to speak – and spin – in the language of achievements. Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh said that Palestinians had triumphed greatly. He commended the families of "the martyrs who sacrificed their blood for this victory."

Israeli officials, meanwhile, sounded equally certain that the war had achieved its objectives, because it would make Hamas think twice before shooting again.

Mr. Lissak, the Hebrew University professor, said that while he and some others on the left in Israel think that the military used too much firepower in Gaza, there is widespread support in Israel for the war. "There was more firepower used here than in any other war in Israel that I know of. From the world, this will engender harsh criticism, and here, it will be moderate."

Mainly, he says, Israelis will walk away with the understanding that their army shouldn't have tolerated repeated missile attacks on the south of Israel.

• Safwat al-Kahlout in Gaza City, Gaza, contributed to this report.

1 | Page 2