Will Obama push China harder?

He's been critical of monetary policy and has named human rights defenders to key posts.

By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the January 8, 2009 edition

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Washington - The United States and China will mark 30 years of normalized relations this week when Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte visits Beijing, highlighting strengthened and diversified relations between the world's superpower and its emerging giant.

Mr. Negroponte – standing in for Condoleezza Rice, who canceled her Asia plans to follow events in Gaza – will toast an evolution in relations under President Bush from confrontation to cooperation. But as the Bush years come to a close, the questions will be more about the future than the past: Can the positive trajectory in Sino-American relations continue as the two countries navigate a global economic downturn? And can improved relations continue as a Democratic administration takes office that may be more prone to pressuring Beijing on human rights and monetary policy?

Chinese President "Hu Jintao is not known for effusive displays of any kind, but when he gave President Bush a great big bear hug [at a recent Asian-Pacific summit], it was a sign of the strong feelings about how good this presidency has been for US-China relations," says Charles Freeman, an Asia and US foreign-policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. "They feel they are going to miss Bush and are worried about the Obama administration on trade and other issues, particularly human rights."

China's concerns stem from positions that Barack Obama took during the presidential campaign, as well as from comments by some of his top foreign-policy advisers. Mr. Obama was critical of China's monetary policy and called on China to stop manipulating its currency, the yuan. Some economists see that manipulation as an effort to keep down the price of China's exports and to maintain growth in a shrinking global economy.

At the same time, China has watched as Obama has named some outspoken human rights defenders to top diplomatic posts. Susan Rice, Obama's top foreign-policy adviser during the campaign and a fervent advocate of pressing China on its human rights record and on its influence in Africa, is Obama's choice as ambassador to the United Nations.

But Obama has also promised to redouble American diplomatic efforts and to favor engagement over confrontation with partners and adversaries alike.

For its part, the Bush administration, in its dealings with China, has opted for cooperation over confrontation. That has put relations in a positive state, analysts say.

"Obama will have a very positive framework to build on that has been gradually developed since the early days of the Bush administration," says Nirav Patel, an Asian expert at the Center for a New American Security in Washington. "It's an important piece of the heritage the new administration will receive."

However, when the Bush administration took office in 2001, some officials disagreed on how to deal with China: It was a battle of "constructive engagement" against a more confrontational approach of "strategic competition." Richard Armitage, who was deputy to then-Secretary of State Colin Powell, carried the day for the more cooperative approach and set the tone that would prevail through two Bush terms, Mr. Patel says.

A nonconfrontational approach helped resolve a standoff in early 2001, when a US spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet and landed on a Chinese island. However, it was 9/11 that cemented the Bush approach to China, says Mr. Freeman of CSIS.

"Officers in the People's Army were dancing a jig on Sept. 12," he says – "not in celebration of the terrible circumstances, but because in one stroke the tone of US-China relations changed," he adds. "It took the talk of strategic competition off the table, and from then on there was an effort to draw China in" on fighting terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and other strategic security issues.

Using this nonconfrontational approach, US officials have made numerous visits to China during the Bush administration – in particular Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, as he's focused on monetary issues.

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