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| Hope ahead? In December, a Palestinian walks past a section of the wall in Jerusalem erected to protect Israelis from suicide
bombers. Sebastian Scheiner/AP |
Global flash points: How to spot signs of peace
Monitor correspondents and experts suggest what to watch for in eight international conflicts.
from the January 3, 2008 edition
Page 1 of 3
At the outset of 2008, many of the world's conflicts seem locked in a stalemate. But history shows that peace often comes as a surprise.
Indeed, if one looks at the resolution of major conflicts in the past 20 years, "almost none of them could have been anticipated just beforehand," says John Darby at the Joan B. Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies in Notre Dame, Ind. More than 40 peace deals have been signed in the past two decades, he says, in places as diverse as Angola, Guatemala, Aceh (Indonesia), and Tajikistan.
Next week, President George Bush heads to the Middle East to spur on the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Marc Gopin at George Mason University in Arlington, Va., notes that US administrations have often done their best conflict-resolution work in the last two years of an eight-year term.
Staff writer Christa Case Bryant looks at key global flash points and asks experts how to identify signs of progress – or a turn for the worse.
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
THE CRUX: Palestinians want their own state, established on some or all of the territory Israelis claim. Israel seeks Palestinian recognition of its right to exist, and an end to violence against its citizens.
THE STATUS: The two sides formally renewed negotiations at the Annapolis conference in December, and aim to reach a permanent peace agreement by the end of 2008 – the final months of President Bush's term.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
• Reconciliation between Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah. While some experts say such an agreement is crucial to eventual peace, it could also make continued negotiations more politically difficult for Israel, which won't deal with Hamas as long as it calls for the destruction of the Jewish state.
• A prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, which has held an Israeli corporal in Gaza for 18 months. Such a move could enable Israel to include Hamas in negotiations.
• A deal that isolates Hamas, leaving it feeling it has no choice but to undermine the peace process.
LEBANON
THE CRUX: This tiny country is a microcosm for broader battles gripping the Middle East as the region's key players – Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Syria – exert their influence in Lebanon in an ongoing battle for supremacy.
THE STATUS: The ruling March 14 bloc, a coalition named for the 2005 Cedar Revolution that helped end Syrian domination of Lebanon, is pitted against the pro-Syria opposition, led by Hizbullah.
The US supports March 14 as a useful bulwark against Hizbullah and its backers, Syria and Iran. The rise of March 14 also represents the most successful example of the Bush administration's Middle East democracy drive. But Syria and Iran seek to deny Washington its toehold.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
• Calm between US ally Israel and Hizbullah, in light of the reduced prospect of an American attack on Iran. And, perhaps, a thaw in relations between the US and Syria.
• Possible attacks from Fatah al-Islam, an Al Qaeda-influenced militant group. It has laid low since the Lebanese Army triumphed over it after a four-month battle in 2007 that was the nation's most grueling fight since the 1975-90 civil war. But isolated Fatah al-Islam cells remain in the north and in Palestinian refugee camps.
• Sunni-Shiite tensions. Overshadowing for the first time Lebanon's traditional Christian-Muslim divide, is the broader schism among Muslims in the Middle East.
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