Al Qaeda stronger, but is it the major factor in Iraq?

Although Al Qaeda has regrouped to pre-9/11 strength, it will probably not affect the fight in Iraq.

from the July 13, 2007 edition

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Source Material: Anthony Cordesman's e-mail regarding terrorism in Iraq

Far too much reporting on Iraq focuses almost exclusively in Al Qa'ida in Mesopotamia, and tacticly assumes it somehow is dirtected by Bin Laden and Al Qaida in Pakistan.

Even Iraqis tend to lump all such attacks as being the result of Al Qaida. The fact is, however, that while the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) is something of an Al Qaida led facade, the real structure of the hardline Sunni Islamist extremist effort in Iraq is far more complex.

Some recent unclassified indicators of how diverse the major insurgent movements are is shown in the charts below:

If the charts, do not come through, the key message is that Al Qaida is not to noisiest movement or the one conducting the majority of attacks, although it may be the bloodiest in terms of horrifying incidents.

The following data come from RFE and show the number of major statements in March 2007, usually attack related, from the 11 most active insurgent groups in Iraq. The ISI, of which Al Qaida is only part, ranks third, with 17%.

Islamist Organization / No of Statements / % of Total

Islamic Army in Iraq / 249 / 26

Ansar al-Sunnah / 196 / 20

Islamic State of Iraq (ISI-Al Qaida) / 162 / 17

Mujahideen Army / 143 /15

Shield of Islam / 89 / 9

Jaysh al Fatihin / 39 / 4

Jash al Rashidin / 33 / 3

Just Recompense Brigades / 26 / 3

Islamic Front of Iraq Resistance (JAMI) / 14 / 1

Jihadist Brigades of Iraq / 12 / 1

1920 Revolution Brigades / 3 / -

Total / 966 / 100

The actual attack indicators are classified and even these are often unreliable, Just as the US tends tTo say most suicide bombers are foreign, often without any forensic or other evidence, Al Qa'ida in Mesopotamia often gets the credit. It is equally difficult to know when US and Iraqi units have attack actual Al Qa'ida affiliates versus other similar movements.

Finally, reporting needs to be careful about assuming Al Qa'ida "franchises" like the movement in Iraq are under any form of serious central Al Qa'ida control. Zarqawi was no great supporter of Bin Laden and his movement has a stronger Egyptian and Jordanian foreign influence than one tied to Bin Laden and his group. It also is now generally estimated to be about 95% Iraqi.

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