Syria's opposition faces 'divided we fall' moment

Syria’s bickering opposition factions are gathering in Turkey today in an effort to forge a united front against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime and gain international support ahead of a "Friends of Syria" summit next weekend.

Today's meeting comes as the top opposition body, the Syrian National Council, has been shaken by splits and internal rows that have ceded the initiative to armed groups and revolutionary councils inside Syria.

The fault lines divide opposition figures living abroad from domestic grass-roots activists, and secular liberals from religious cadres, reflecting to some extent Syria’s complicated sectarian, ethnic, and cultural mix.

“Overall, the Syrian opposition, because of the sectarian and diverse nature of the country, doesn’t tend to congeal as easily as elsewhere where identity is more solidified,” says Andrew Tabler, author of a new book on Syria under Mr. Assad's rule.

A united Syrian opposition could not expect the same level of Western commitment to its cause as that enjoyed by the well-funded and -equipped Libyan rebels because of the additional complications of intervening in Syria.

But a united opposition could have an impact at home by encouraging a broad swath of Syrian citizens who do not particularly support the Assad regime but fear the alternative could be worse. By presenting a clear political agenda – including promises of freedom and protection of minorities – a stronger, more cohesive opposition could help shift the internal balance of power away from the regime.

“The silent majority will be encouraged when they see hope for a better future and when they see concrete initiatives that will rebuild Syria and establish a democratic civil state where all people are treated with dignity and enjoy a free and prosperous life,” says Ausama Monajed, senior adviser to the secretary-general of the SNC. “A grassroots campaign needs to reach out to this group to gain their support even if they wish to remain at home.”

SNC criticized as toothless

The Syrian National Council (SNC) was founded in August 2011, bringing under its wing most established opposition groups as well as new factions that had emerged following the outbreak of unrest in Syria five months earlier.

Led mainly by veteran opposition figures who lived in exile, it lobbied the West for support and helped secure a raft of United Nations and European Union sanctions against the Assad regime. Since then its momentum has faltered amid worsening violence in Syria, internal squabbles, and international hesitancy over intervention.

That has allowed the rebel Free Syrian Army to gain traction at the expense of the political opposition. The SNC has attempted to liaise with the FSA through the formation of a military council, but the armed opposition has shown little interest in dealing with the SNC so far.

Many grass-roots opposition activists accuse the SNC of being out of touch with the realities on the ground and toothless in the face of the Assad regime’s brute force bid to crush the uprising.

“They are a waste of time. They move from one capital to another arguing with each other and have no credibility at all inside Syria,” says Ahmad, a Syrian activist living in hiding in north Lebanon. “We are the people running the revolution and we’ll not allow the SNC to push us aside and take power once Assad is gone.”

Ahmad echoes complaints from other opposition activists about the lack of transparency within the SNC, particularly over the handling of funds.

Five groups create spin-off

On Saturday, five opposition groups announced the creation of a new coalition that would act independently from the SNC: the liberal National Movement for Change, the Islamist Movement of the Fatherland, the Bloc for Liberation and Development, the Turkmen National Bloc, and the Kurdish Movement for a New Life.

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