Tunisian protests shake one of the most repressive Arab regimes

Ben Ali's progression of concessions

After initially dismissing the protesters as “terrorists,” Ben Ali began offering concessions Jan. 10. He promised to create 300,000 jobs by the end of next year, but offered few details and failed to address the issues people are most angry about.

“The fact that [the protests] lasted is a strong signal that Tunisians are suffering from the impact of these policies and that they have aspirations,” says economist Lahsen Achy at the Carnegie Mid­dle East Center in Bei­rut, Leb­anon. “They know what they want and are persistent in their demands for change. The type of response the people are expecting should be institutional and political,” not just promising a certain number of jobs.

The president then went further on Jan. 12, firing his interior minister.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the US, which counts on Tunisia as an ally against terrorism, was “worried” about the unrest and the response of the government. She added, “We are not taking sides in it, we just hope there can be a peaceful resolution.”

The next day, Ben Ali ordered police to stop shooting except in self-defense. He offered to lift censorship, allow greater political freedom, and keep food prices in check On Jan. 14, Ben Ali dissolved his government, but it was too late. The people had spoken.

Is Egypt next?

The ‘Tunisian scenario’ could not play out in Egypt, its trade minister has said, arguing conditions differ.

Dr. Achy of the Carnegie Middle East Center says some of the factors in Tunisia are absent in Egypt: Tunisians are more highly educated and more likely to live in mid-sized cities – thus their aspirations are higher.

But Egypt has a huge youth population that shares a disproportionate burden of the country’s unemployment; those under 30 account for 60 percent of the population but about 90 percent of the jobless. Youths are growing restless under 82-year-old President Hosni Mubarak, who has increasingly clamped down on dissent in the past year.

Though liberalization has helped the economy grow, many Egyptians say they don’t feel their lives are improving. As global food prices and inflation in Egypt rise, the government will need to carefully manage issues like unemployment and food security, says Achy.

Popular outbursts like Tunisia’s are “always an accumulation of a number of things,” he says. In Egypt, “people are suffering silently for the moment, but at some time you might have an explosion of popular anger.”

Ben Ali gone, but corrupt system still in place

As for Tunisia, it's unclear to what extent angry protesters will succeed in overhauling the way their country is run.

While early elections are to be held by mid-March, the country’s opposition is atrophied from decades of being smothered by the regime. And the corrupt and powerful system Ben Ali built did not disappear when his jet left Tunis. The man who has assumed the presidency, Mr. Mebazaa, is himself a part of the system that protesters rallied to bring down.

But Tunisian activists are undeterred.

“We feel overwhelming happiness and hope,” says Naziha Rejiba, a long-time human rights activists and independent journalist in Tunisia reached by phone. “But there are also questions about the future. The people of Tunisia brought down a dictator. But now we must work to build a democratic society in Tunisia.”

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