Abbas agrees to fresh Israeli-Palestinian talks in Egypt, but has little support at home

Opponents of the talks organized a demonstration Wednesday. But amid widespread Palestinian apathy, it drew only drew a few hundred protesters. The groups participating in the rally included longtime critics of talks with Israel, such as the Marxist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which is headquartered in Syria.

"Had 20,000 people showed up today, Abbas would withdraw from talks," said Hani el Masri, a political commentator who spoke out against the talks at the rally. "But the opposition is still nascent…. The factions are fossilized and have distanced themselves from the people.''

Fatah more popular than Hamas

Abbas' Fatah party currently enjoys an advantage in public opinion over the most potent peace process opponent, Hamas. A June poll of Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza, conducted by a Ramallah-based survey group, found that Fatah enjoyed a 19 percentage point advantage over Hamas in support for the Palestinian legislature. Abbas leads Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by a 16 percentage-point margin.

That said, if Israel were to resume expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank after a 10-month settlement freeze expires Sept. 26, the tenuous approval within the party for Abbas' participation is likely to erode. Also at issue is the 500-mile-long security barrier that Israel is nearly finished erecting after a wave of suicide attackers from the West Bank killed more than 1,000 Israelis in the second intifada.

"You can't negotiate when they are building settlements and completing the wall," says Kadoura Fares, a Fatah member who is a former Palestinian cabinet minister. "That injures the faith of the people in Abbas."

Abbas's political fortunes within the PLO depend on his ability to win concessions and gestures from Israel and the international community, say analysts. Substantial progress toward a Palestinian state could also shore up support.

"If Abbas can prove that this was right, it can stop radicals. It is very important that these negotiations achieve something," says Mohammed Dajani, a political science professor at Al Quds University. "Even if it narrows the gap, or paves the way for future negotiations, it will undermine radicals on both sides."

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