Egyptian reform activists wary of Obama's visit to Cairo

Cairo receives $2 billion in US aid every year, more than any country except Israel.

"We hope that Obama will seriously advocate for democracy and human rights in the Arab world, or at least stay silent," says Gamal Eid, the director of the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information. "Not saying anything would be better than saying different things at different times just to negotiate with the Egyptian government."

A nod to longstanding interests?

For Ayman Nour, a liberal opposition leader and former presidential candidate, a clear picture of Obama's attitude to Egypt has emerged.

"It is all a sign that the next period will be one of reconciliation between the Egyptian government and the United States, to the detriment of principles and for the sake of more hardened interests," says Mr. Nour, who spent four years in jail on charges widely seen as tied to his decision to challenge Mr. Mubarak in the 2005 presidential election.

His release in February, combined with the ruling Monday by an appeals court to overturn Ibrahim's most recent conviction and two-year jail sentence, are seen by many as conciliatory gestures by Mubarak toward Obama.

Essam El Erian, a prominent member of Egypt's powerful Muslim Brotherhood, a banned but officially tolerated movement that controls 20 percent of the seats in Parliament's lower house, says "it is only natural" that Obama's first concern be American interests – but that human rights should factor into that.

"If America wants to feed its interests in this part of the world then it should be friends with the people and not with their dictators," he says. "Let the people choose their own governments and their own lives."

'We don't need advice' from Obama

But those close to the Mubarak regime say the issue is not so black and white. Egypt has never responded well to American criticism, say analysts and regime insiders, and if change is ever going to come to Cairo, it will have to be homegrown.

Mohsen Said, a Cairo University professor and member of the Policy Committee of the ruling National Democratic Party, thinks Obama "should be subtle about addressing democracy."

People all across Egypt "have high hopes for Obama," he says, but he should avoid "a big debate about democracy."

"If I were in his shoes, I really would not overemphasize it," says Professor Said. "This is something that Bush was very harsh in imposing on countries that did not want it. Obama cannot say he is a man of peace, and then try to force ideas on people."

Diaa Rashwan, a political analyst at Cairo's Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a think tank with government ties, says the US should leave democracy to Egyptians.

"The US cannot achieve democracy for us," he says. "The US is not part of it. It would be more useful for Obama to declare a stand on issues the US is already involved in," he adds, like Iraq or the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. "We don't need advice from him, we need solid positions."

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