Last year saw vast improvements in Iraq. Violence dropped dramatically and Iraqis took greater political and military control. But war is still being fought, suicide bombings remain a near daily menace, and the gains are fragile. The year ahead will test the staying power of progress as US military forces begin to withdraw, Iraqi politicians jostle for power in Baghdad and beyond, and a new administration in Washington assumes responsibility for the war as it enters its seventh year.

How safe is Iraq?

The mix of the US and Iraqi military troop surge, many Sunnis turning against Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) to work with American forces, and a cease-fire among the Shiite militia known as the Mahdi Army ended much of the sectarian fighting that racked the country in 2007.

The increase in security has been striking in Baghdad, where shops are reopening and concrete barriers are being removed. But the surge did push insurgents north to cities like Mosul and Baquba, where attacks are still common but increasingly focused on Iraqi security forces rather than civilians. To be sure, insurgents are still able to carry out high-profile suicide bombings.

According to estimates from independent organizations, between 6,700 and 8,000 Iraqis were killed in attacks in 2008, more than a 50 percent drop compared with 2007. According to the Associated Press, 314 US troops are believed to have died in Iraq in 2008 compared with 904 servicemen and women killed in 2007.

Will President-elect Barack Obama accelerate the US withdrawal?

Under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the US, some American troops have already started pulling back to major bases that will become regional military hubs. US forces are set to leave most cities by July and are scheduled to be completely out of Iraq by the end of 2011.

Even though Mr. Obama said during his campaign that he would withdraw forces within 16 months of taking office, military commanders, senior Iraqi officials, and Middle East experts have stressed that a rush to leave could be disastrous.

"Realism is the key to success, and Iraqi and US leaders need to be extremely careful about exaggerating Iraqi capabilities and the speed with which the US can safely withdraw its forces and advisory teams from Iraq," cautioned Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a recent report. "The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are still very much a work in progress."

American diplomats understand the need to keep a close eye on changing conditions before ending the occupation. "We've got to be very agile here, I think, as conditions change in Iraq and as Iraqis change in their perceptions," says US Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who is leaving next month after two years as head of the US mission in Iraq. "So far we've done a pretty fair job of what could have been extremely bad for the US and Iraq, and that was perpetuating the sense that the US is determined to hang on here."

How quickly American forces could withdraw "depends on how much equipment we're leaving behind," says one military official. "If we're allowed to leave most of it behind, we can be gone pretty quickly."

Iraqis could vote in a national referendum later this year on whether to demand that US troops withdraw sooner. If that vote is held, it has the potential to force the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq as early as mid-2010 – a similar time frame promised by Obama.

What role will the Sons of Iraq play this year?

American military commanders believe the group is essential to keeping the peace. What happens to this approximately 90,000-large, well-armed but largely untrained group could impact the state of the insurgency.

The Sons of Iraq (SOI) includes many ex-insurgents and is a largely Sunni group originally funded by the US. It grew out of the Awakening Movement in Anbar Province in which tribal chiefs turned against AQI and joined the Americans. But now it's bankrolled by the Shiite-led government, which has pledged to incorporate more of them into official security forces but remains suspicious of the local militias. It's still unclear whether Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will keep them on the government payroll or disband the group altogether. As a counterweight, Mr. Maliki has established tribal support councils funded by his government to serve similar functions in Shiite areas.

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