Sudan declares war on South Sudan: Will this draw in East Africa, and China? (+video)

It was once thought that Bashir would recognize the increasing weakness of his bargaining position, and that he would eventually come to the negotiating table, willing to compromise. But with his troops taking a drubbing in South Kordofan and Heglig, and with his own future in question as an accused war criminal, Bashir may have decided that war is his only option.

Bashir may also be hoping to win some sympathy from Islamists, from whom his National Congress Party has always drawn heavy support.

On Thursday, Bashir described the fight against South Sudan to be a “jihad” or holy struggle. It’s a word that may be intended to stiffen the backs of his own army, the vast majority of whom are Muslims, or it may be a call for help from Muslims worldwide. Many Muslims consider jihad to be a collective effort, where any Muslim country under threat must be defended by any faithful Muslim who is capable of fighting on its behalf.

More quietly, Sudan may also draw on support from some of its larger trade partners, including China. According to Africa Confidential, a respected journal, a trio of UN experts found evidence that Chinese ammunition has made its way to pro-Khartoum militias in the Darfur region. The trio’s report was rejected by the UN Secretary General’s office, but the experts simply sent the report on to the UN Security Council. If the evidence proves true, it could indicate a covert violation of UN weapons embargo against a state that is accused of launching an ethnic cleansing and genocide campaign against several tribes in the Darfur region.

China’s state-owned oil companies are part of a consortium that has exploration contracts along both sides of the Sudan-South Sudan border.

What we are witnessing now, therefore, could be the beginning of a wider conflict, one that draws in South Sudan’s friendly neighbors such as Uganda and Kenya on one hand, and that draws in Chinese military hardware, a disparate collection of Islamist volunteers for Sudan, along with all the remaining resources that Khartoum can muster.

All-out war is not inevitable. But if it truly starts, this is not likely to end well.

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