President Hu Jintao's Washington visit in January will give China and the US a chance to put their increasingly rocky relationship back on track.
Obama's early hopes of building a strategic partnership with Beijing look fragile, as the world's two largest economies find themselves on opposite sides of the world's most important debates. Those debates will continue in 2011, but it is hard to see China coming round, whether on climate change, currency disputes, or how to deal with North Korea.
Economically, China's top international priority will be keeping its currency stable and avoiding the rapid upward revaluation that Washington and much of the world demands.
At home, Beijing's priorities will be reining in inflation and trying to stop the chasm between rich and poor from widening and possibly fueling social unrest.
Though the economy is expected to grow by around 10 percent, some economists warn that the whole Chinese house of cards could come crashing down in 2011 if the property bubble bursts. If that happens, all bets are off concerning China's future role as the world's dominant economy.
Politically, the ruling Communist Party (which celebrates its 90th anniversary in 2011) will be preparing for its once-in-a-decade leadership change, due in 2012. That means a good deal of backstage maneuvering among party bosses and a continued reluctance to allow political liberalization that might rock the boat.
China's neighbors will be watching to see if Beijing maintains its assertive foreign policy. China's territorial claims to almost the whole of the South China Sea have brought it into conflict with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia. A nasty spat with Japan earlier this year over a string of uninhabited islands showed how fierce Beijing is ready to get in these matters.
But Beijing's attitude has raised a number of regional hackles, and prompted some Southeast Asian nations to turn to the US. That will probably give Chinese foreign policymakers pause next year.
Japan is expected to reorient its defense posture for the first time in nearly 40 years. Until recently, Tokyo saw Russia as its main threat. Now it reckons that China and North Korea are the real ones. The Self Defense Force will be modifying its strategy accordingly.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan looks as though he'll hold onto his job for more than a year, which is better than any of his four immediate predecessors. There are few signs, however, that he will pull Japan from its two-decade slump.
South Korea can look forward to recovery from the financial crisis, as long as its neighbor to the north does not plunge the Korean Peninsula into war. Forecasting Pyongyang's plans is a risky business; few nations are as unpredictable in their use of nuclear tests, missile launches, and artillery barrages against South Korea.
Much appears to depend on the health of North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong-il, who is clearly grooming his third son, Kim Jong-un, to continue the family dynasty started by Kim Il-sung.
If the younger Kim establishes authority before his father leaves the scene, he stands a better chance of ensuring a smooth transition. If he cannot, some North Korea watchers suspect that the Army, or a faction within the Army, might grab for power. That would be unlikely to make Pyongyang any more amenable to diplomatic pressure, were Beijing ever to decide to try to bring its rogue protégé to heel.
– Peter Ford, Beijing bureau chief
