Bus bombing: Why in Bulgaria, and why look to Iran?

Anti-semitism is almost unheard of in Bulgaria, according to Georgieff. “While occasionally extremist parties, including Ataka ['Attack'] which is represented in parliament, has engaged in almost medieval anti-Semitism, it’s not very popular with the population,” he says.

Many Bulgarians feel an affinity with Israel partly due to pride over their country’s stance in World War II, when pressure from the general population, civic organizations, and the Bulgarian Orthodox Church (a potent national symbol), blocked the deportation of Bulgarian Jews ordered by the country’s Nazi allies. Deportation, however, continued in Bulgarian-occupied zones of Yugoslavia and Greece.

Israel points to foreign hand

Israel has already pointed to foreign actors. Israeli officials and analysts said the strike in Burgas was part of an ongoing terrorist campaign by Tehran and its Lebanese militant ally, Hezbollah.

In a statement, Prime Minister Netanyahu suggested the timing was pegged to the 18th anniversary of the bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Argentina issued an arrest warrant for Mr. Mughniyeh in 1999 in relation to the attack.

"Iran’s murderous terrorism continues to attack innocents," Mr. Netanyahu said. "This is an Iranian terror attack that is spreading throughout the entire world. Israel will respond with force."

Several Israeli tourist destinations and diplomatic missions have been targeted in the last year, but many have been thwarted. Just last week, authorities in Cyprus said they arrested a Lebanese man believed to be planning an attack against Israeli tourist targets in the island nation. This is in addition to recent attempts to attack Israeli targets in Thailand and Azerbaijan, and an almost-successful attack on the wife of a diplomat in India.

Iran is also accused by Israeli and local authorities of being behind those attacks. Iran, meanwhile, has accused Israel of sponsoring a covert campaign to assassinate its nuclear scientists and attack military installations around the country.

Some analysts said Hezbollah may be involved in today's attack because it has been seeking revenge for the 2008 assassination of Mughniyeh, Hezbollah’s military chief and the architect of 2006 war against Israel. The Lebanese militant group accused Israel of responsibility of the car bombing in Syria that killed Mughniyeh.

Though Israel has pointed to Iran as a prime suspect, it is too early to assign responsibility, says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran analyst at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya. Jihadist groups like Al Qaeda, which targeted Israeli tourists in Kenya in 2002, could also be responsible, he noted.

"Netanyahu’s accusation that Iran was behind it will of course escalate the tension," says Mr. Javedanfar. "If Iran is found to be behind it, this will make a tense situation even more tense."

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