Why the African Union road map for Libya is unlikely to go anywhere
In Libya, the African Union is seen as a tool of Qaddafi's ambitions, not as a potential honest broker in the uprising against his 41-year reign.
Cairo, Egypt; and Benghazi, Libya
A group of envoys from the African Union headed to Tripoli yesterday and, they say, were given Muammar Qaddafi's approval for a "road map" to Libya peace that they are touting as a solution to the country's current stalemate.Skip to next paragraph
Dan Murphy is a staff writer for the Monitor's international desk, focused on the Middle East. Murphy, who has reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, and more than a dozen other countries, writes and edits Backchannels. The focus? War and international relations, leaning toward things Middle East.
The Arab League observer mission in Syria is likely to fail
Egypt's military rulers crack down on democracy groups
Iran's threats over Strait of Hormuz? Understandable, but not easy
Eastern Libya poll indicates political Islam will closely follow democracy
Iraq's Maliki threatens, Sunnis grumble, and Baghdad goes boom
Subscribe Today to the Monitor
The trip has generated a flurry of press interest and speculation that an end to the Libyan conflict is in store. But any expectation that the AU proposal will prove acceptable to the rebels will almost certainly be proven wrong.
In eastern Libya, at least, the country's ties to the African Union are seen with suspicion. Qaddafi started describing himself as an African "king of kings" when his vision for a united Arab League, with him at the helm, didn't pan out. His decision to look south, rather than east, resulted in Qaddafi spending money on meddling in various African conflicts that many Libyans felt would have been better spent at home. In eastern Libya, the African Union is seen as a tool of Qaddafi's ambitions, not as a potential honest broker in the uprising against his 41-year reign.
IN PICTURES: Libya conflict
Adding to the AU's weakness as a possible intermediary is the staunchly held belief that mercenaries from Chad, Niger, and other African states have poured into the country to defend Qaddafi from his own people.
Over a week ago, Ahmed Bani, the spokesman for the rebel military, alleged that 3,600 members of the Chadian presidential guard under the command of Issa Taher were fighting for Qaddafi outside Ajdabiya, a rebel town near Benghazi that was besieged for weeks by Qaddafi's forces until British war planes destroyed his tanks and rocket launchers arrayed around the town. While that was never confirmed and the true extent of the role of African mercenaries fighting for Qaddafi is unknown, in Benghazi and other eastern towns there is a deeply held belief that Africa's leaders are determined to help Qaddafi hang on to power.
In the past two days, an offensive by Qaddafi's people saw thousands flee Ajdabiya, frightened they'd be subject to mortar and rocket fire once again.