Half of Afghanistan Taliban leadership arrested in Pakistan

Are top commanders replaceable?

Zakir, who was held in Guantánamo and released in 2006 only to rejoin the Taliban, has played a significant role in shaping the movement’s military strategy in recent years, Taliban and Afghan officials said. His presence is particularly felt in southern Afghanistan, where he has organized the resistance to US offensives such as the ongoing campaign in Marjah. “He is a brilliant organizer,” said Abdul Salaam, a Taliban commander in Kandahar Province, in an interview last summer. “Many of the fighters and commanders look to him as a leader.”

Afghan officials and analysts credit Baradar with modernizing the Taliban movement, changing it from a largely fundamentalist movement that shunned compromise to one that increasingly spoke in nationalist terms and reached out for allies in its fight against foreign forces.

“The Taliban is trying to convince the world that it is a just cause,” says Muzjda. “They issue appeals to international bodies and prohibit their fighters from attacking Shias, for example. This is new, and Baradar had a lot to do with this.”

“The Taliban are under a lot of pressure from these arrests,” says Mullah Abdul Salaam Zaif, a former Taliban official who lives in Kabul.

He and others associated with the group insist, however, that the arrests will not fundamentally alter the movement. “You can arrest Mullah Baradar, but there are many Mullah Baradars out there,” says Mr. Zaif. “The commanders are replaceable. The fighters on the ground will keep fighting.”

Muzjda and other analysts say the true impact of the arrests may not be felt for some time.

“We will have to wait and see if this changes everything,” says Muzjda, “or if the Taliban will be able to regroup like they have done so many times before.”

Behroz Khan contributed reporting from Peshawar, Pakistan; Huma Yusuf from Karachi; and Howard LaFranchi from Washington.

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