China stays cool as new US defense strategy targets Asia

“There are areas where we compete and areas where we cooperate,” she adds. “The key is to stop the competition from slipping into strategic rivalry that would overwhelm the cooperation.”

Some scholars here worry that the US shift, while posing no immediate threat to China, might promote such strategic competition in the longer term.

“It will damage mutual trust, and if it poses a potential threat it could lead to a vicious circle and deepen misperceptions,” argues Professor Yuan. “It is very natural for the Chinese to think that they are a very important target, so it is not constructive.”

Potential crisis?

Sun Zhe, a security expert at Tsinghua University’s department of International Relations, shares that fear. In the face of Washington’s new posture, he says, “China probably has no choice but to adopt hedging itself. “We won’t give up talking to the US but we will continue to strengthen our military power,” he predicts. “I am afraid of an escalation of military competition and a potential crisis.” 

The most likely theater for such a crisis would be the South China Sea, believed to be rich not only in fisheries but in oil and other minerals. China has laid sovereignty claims to almost the whole sea, bringing it into conflict with Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei, which all maintain claims to specific islands and atolls.

Washington has officially declared itself neutral in these disputes, but US officials have recently done little to hide their support for China’s neighbors.

Washington’s new “tilt” toward the Asia Pacific region “implies that if China does something to prevent US power projection, the US will fight back,” suggests Professor Sun. “That hurts our bilateral relations.”

The new US defense strategy, however, “is only a new step in the same direction” that Washington has been taking for two years toward greater involvement in Asia, points out Professor Jin. “China’s leaders have had some psychological preparation for this,” he says. “It won’t shock them … and they won’t be very nervous.”

One thing it will do however, he adds, referring to the Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army, “is give the PLA an excuse to ask for more money. I think they’ll get a bigger budget now.” 

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