Imagining Cuba after Chávez

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez views Cuban revolutionary and former president Fidel Castro as his mentor, his “father.” The two countries have grown intertwined both ideologically and economically since Mr. Chávez rose to power in 1998.  

Cuba and Venezuela have grown so close, in fact, that at one point in 2005, Cuba’s Vice President Carlos Lage declared “We have two presidents: Fidel and Chávez.” Perhaps a moment of hyperbole, but the statement speaks to the growing dependence that Cuba has on Venezuela, long after it lost its cold war ally, the Soviet Union.

Venezuela provides Cuba with between $5 billion and $15 billion annually, nearly a quarter of the communist island's $63 billion GDP, depending on the figures that are banded together by various sources. Neither government supplies the public with official numbers. In exchange, Cuba provides Venezuela with needed human capital, like skilled doctors and sports coaches. 

But Chávez is battling cancer, and he faces his strongest opposition since he took office more than a decade ago. A potential loss of Chavismo, as Chávez’s left-wing ideology is called, would surely transform the oil-rich, South American nation. And it would have an equally big impact on Cuba.

“If Chávez were to lose power, Cuba would be more adversely affected than any other country. The impact on the Cuban economy would be enormous,” says Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. “Cuba’s current leadership, no doubt aware of such an unhappy prospect, is trying to undertake economic reforms in part to offset such a blow.” This includes attempts at diversifying investors and creating a new class of entrepreneurs not dependent on the government’s payroll.

There are clear historical parallels for Cuba should Chávez fall. The so-called Special Period, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, saw Cuba left in chronic economic crisis as Havana was no longer able to offset the US embargo. The economy contracted 35 percent between 1989 and 1993, and oil imports decreased nearly 90 percent in that same period. The Cuban people were plunged into food shortages, some losing up to a quarter of their body weight.

"It was horrible," says one elderly man, walking along Havana’s seawall. He declined to provide any personal information because he feared retaliation from the state. "We had nothing, no food and no money but we survived.”

He blames the US embargo for Cuba’s isolation. Initiated in 1960, the embargo was designed to persuade Cuban authorities to move towards “democratization and greater respect for human rights,” however, the policy encourages this by limiting trade between Cuba and US companies. As a result, Cuba’s crumbling buildings and postcard-friendly old American cars have left the country looking like it is stuck in a time warp.

 The rise of Chávez

Life for Cubans began to improve when Chávez came to power in Caracas in 1998, nearly a decade after the Soviet Union fell.  The former paratrooper was looking to launch his own “Bolivarian,” socialist revolution in Venezuela, and saw Fidel Castro as his mentor. He admired Castro’s revolutionary zeal, and Chávez lavished oil and cash on his ideological ally.

Today, there is the real possibility that Chávez may not win or survive another six-year term. Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski – who recent polls say would likely lose to Chávez, but beat any other candidate from the incumbent party – says maintaining such high levels of investment in Cuba is not a given if he’s elected in October.

“Venezuelan money will no longer be used to gain personal loyalties,” Mr. Capriles says. In his enthusiasm to woo voters from across the political spectrum — including Chavistas — the centrist politician rarely makes precise policy statements, making it difficult to ascertain exactly what the future will hold.

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