From pop star to president? Haiti looks set to elect 'Sweet Micky.'

During a carnival this month in the southern Haitian city of Jacmel, ra-ra bands and costumers found themselves upstaged by Michel “Sweet Micky” Martelly, a singer of Haiti's kompa music who was once best known for his outrageous lyrics and occasionally performing in drag.

Now the top candidate for president in today's election, his street-level campaign in the festive seaside city included a beach concert that drew a crowd of several thousand fans and supporters.

Such strong grassroots popularity, combined with an effort to align himself with Haiti's business elite, looks set to propel the political novice to victory over over former First Lady Mirlande Manigat, a 70-year-old Sorbonne-educated lawyer. Recent polls show the middle-aged pop music star with a lead ranging from 4 percent to 30 percent.

“Martelly is young and strong and I hope things get better with him, that he will bring more business and more jobs," says 29-year-old Jean Pierre Dielifet, who has lived in a refugee tent camp since a massive earthquake flattened Haiti's capital, Port-au-Prince last year, killing more than 200,000 and leaving some 1.5 million homeless. "Haitians are tired of leaders pretending that they are for the people. It’s better to try something new than the same thing as before, because the men who came before did nothing.”

Aristide returns, Wyclef gets shot in the hand

Haitians going to the polls hope that a new president will offer a fresh start for the country’s stalled recovery.

A tense atmosphere loomed in the capital, however, as word spread that Martelly-supporter and famous Haitian-American hip hop star Wyclef Jean was shot in the hand Saturday night and amid concerns that the election could be disrupted by Friday's surprise return of exiled former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide.

“If [Aristide's] return prompts demonstrations in the streets which result in a low voter turn out, then there could be legitimacy issues concerning the election,” says political scientist Mark Jones, of Rice University.

Martelly's candidacy took off after Mr. Jean was declared ineligible to run for president last year. (Jean has been treated for a graze gunshot to his hand, according to a statement, but the circumstances of the Saturday night incident remain unclear.)

Martelly's support from the impoverished urban demographic mirrors that of Mr. Aristide when he ran the country in 1991 and again from 1994 to 1996 and from 2001 to 2004. And protests by this group, which carries a lot of weight in the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation, have helped Martelly, as they have helped Aristide over the years.

Street riots following the initial poll in November – international observers determined that widespread fraud was carried out by President Rene Préval’s INITE party, favoring his chosen successor, Jude Celestin – put Martelly back on the ballot for today's runoff against Ms. Manigat.

Wild cards abound

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