Sudan: 'Arab Spring' protests wane, but activists remain optimistic

Those who have taken to the streets are mostly activists, says this student, who like other activists interviewed for this story asked not to be named. "But a regular Sudanese is just sitting in his house saying, 'Good work,'" says the student. "They are not physically engaged."

That high degree of passivity, despite severe economic hardship, has enabled security forces – who are also not particularly well paid, with policemen often receiving the equivalent of $70 per month – to keep protests under control.

"What is happening is the result of an accumulation of frustration, which dates to the separation of the South" a year ago, says Adil Abdelghani, a lawyer in Khartoum. North Sudanese have been despondent that they have "retreated" from the first to third largest country in Africa.

Also, after decades of mobilizing fighters to wage jihad on southern battlefronts, only to finally lose the vast territory – as well as the oil that once formed the lifeblood of Sudan – means that "the achievements the government had been speaking about either were not real, or they were lost," says Mr. Abdelghani.

"The pillars of the Sudanese economy have been destroyed, so now we are staring on this debris and ruin," adds Abdelghani, noting the currency losing value and "skyrocketing" prices. "What's going on now will continue. But whether it amounts to overthrowing the regime, I don't have an answer."

'Walls of fear are breaking down'

Antigovernment activists also say they can't calculate the staying power of Bashir, though the country has not seen such street protests – modest as they are – in many years.

"People have been suffering so much the last months, and they are going to suffer more, so that will get more people engaged," says the engineering student. "For the last 23 years people gave up on the freedom to express themselves. But the economic crisis could make them die, so this can move them."

"The walls of fear are breaking down, so people know [security forces] are not as powerful as they were imagining," the student adds. "So people are less afraid, and more aware."

The government also played its cards well, activists say. It has asked who is the alternative, and says any change will bring chaos and greater corruption. Officials presented the separation of South Sudan a year ago as a good step that removes south Sudanese "insects" from their midst. Even the arrest warrant issued by the ICC for Bashir for war crimes was painted in emotional terms, as a court of foreigners trying to weaken a president chosen by the people.

"This government is not smart, but they really do know how to keep themselves in power," says another activist, an engineering graduate. "One of the smartest things they have done is not crack down so hard it gets people further riled up."

Protests have been largely put down with batons and at times rubber bullets, though activists report that "pro-regime thugs" have also used knives, axes and metal bars.

But there has so far been no shooting of protesters that could provide martyrs, and martyr's funerals, to rally around. And other regional examples such as Syria, where anti-regime rebels say up to 17,000 people have died in the bloody 16-month uprising, are magnitudes larger.

In Sudan regime agents "are arresting all the key instigators; they have people undercover, see how these things develop, and they arrest them," says the graduate. "We do hate the government, but have no party. We can't organize."

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