As global poverty lessens and aid increases: Did famed UN development goals matter?
Days before Sept. 11, 2001, a set of eight 'Millennium Development Goals' were declared to improve health, education, and welfare across the planet. As the goals expire on 2015, a sympathetic look at how they fared.
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The headline goal of halving the number of people who live on less than $1.25 a day has in fact already been met: The proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has fallen to 20 percent, according to the World Bank; that’s down from 43 percent in 1990.Skip to next paragraph
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Some experts say the fall in extreme poverty has been driven by booming economic growth in China and India, not the MDGs or any work done by the international aid community.
In sub-Saharan Africa, for instance, the rate of extreme poverty has fallen by just 14 percent since 1990. That’s an improvement but it falls far short of the goal of halving the rate.
But some gains may have a link to the MDGs:
* The share of people around the world who have access to improved drinking water rose from 71 percent in 1990 to 86 percent in 2010, in line with MDG 7.
* Around the world, there are now 97 girls in school for every 100 boys, up from 84 in 1990 – thanks at least in part, experts say, to MDG 3.
* The number of children who die before their fifth birthday has fallen by 41 percent since 1990, marking strong progress toward MDG 4.
Goals likely to be missed by 2015 include achieving universal primary school education, cutting the maternal mortality ratio by three-quarters, and eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, among others.
However Mr. Kenny points out that even if a target won’t be hit, there may be real value in striving for it.
“Before the MDGs, maternal mortality was… way down the development agenda,” he says – so much so that data on maternal mortality was not well tracked. But now maternal mortality is being closely monitored, and being discussed in a new way at the international level.
Regardless of the development outcomes that the MDGs may – or may not – have inspired, one thing is abundantly clear: The MDGs moved a whole lot of money.
“The MDGs’ main impact, I think, was on aid,” says Duncan Green, a senior strategic adviser at Oxfam, adding that the goals “were part of a rethink about the role of aid” that swept through many rich countries in the first few years after the new millennium.
After the lull in the 1990s, worldwide aid flows ballooned in the early 2000s, reaching $128 billion in 2009, more than twice the level of a decade earlier according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That uptick in foreign assistance was focused on the world’s poorest countries, reversing a trend from the previous decade; the share of aid going to sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled between 2000 and 2009.
Aid flows from the US have followed a similar trajectory. Under President Obama, the US Agency for International Development has set up a handful of what the agency describes as “key vehicles” for helping countries around the world achieve the MDGs: the Global Health Initiative, the Global Climate Initiative, and a $3.5 billion program called Feed the Future.
What happens now?
The MDGs expire at the end of 2015, and aid flows are expected to decline in the years ahead. Aid officials, academics, politicians, and many ordinary people are trying to figure out what will come next.
There will definitely be a continuing global development agenda. That is being taken as a given. A consensus has emerged because of the MDGs that these sorts of global exercises are worth doing, even if we’ll never be able to measure their impact precisely.
“Global goals that mobilize civil society, and that mobilize the public imagination as to what can be done, can be surprisingly powerful, and we shouldn’t be cynical about them,” says Sachs of Columbia. “We should understand that there really is something important to agreeing to do things in the world.”