Actor George Clooney (c.) and Rep. Jim Moran (D) of Virginia (l.) are led to a police vehicle after being arrested during a protest at the Sudan Embassy in Washington Friday. (Cliff Owen/AP)

George Clooney arrested: how his protest could help Sudan (+video)

By Peter Grier, Staff writer / 03.16.12

Actor George Clooney and his father Nick Clooney were arrested Friday outside the Sudanese Embassy in Washington. They were participating in a protest meant to bring attention to what Mr. Clooney and fellow activists term a growing and needless humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is blocking food aid from entering the Nuba Mountains in his country’s border region with South Sudan, according to Clooney. Sudanese government soldiers have clashed in the area with rebels linked to South Sudan, creating a situation where civilians are desperate for food while missiles and bombs rain down on their land.

“This is a moment where we have a chance to do something because if we don’t, in the next three to four months, there’s going to be a real humanitarian disaster,” said Clooney before police led him away in plastic handcuffs.

Clooney and fellow protesters were arrested after being warned three times not to cross a police line outside the embassy. The high-profile event capped a week in which Clooney met with President Obama to discuss Sudan and testified on the issue before a congressional committee. Clooney and dad were released early Friday afternoon, according to wire service reports.

Will the brief incarceration of one Hollywood actor make a difference here? It’s certainly possible. There’s a reason Washington interest groups recruit celebrities to front their campaigns – it works. Congressional aides and government officials who don’t blink an eye over world leaders will line up to see stars.

Plus, the wild success of the viral Kony 2012 video produced by the group Invisible Children has already sensitized millions of Americans to the continued problems of Africa. In that context Clooney’s advocacy of a deep and genuine crisis could produce more of a response than it otherwise might have.

Finally, there’s a precedent in Washington where a protest at an embassy started small, with a few arrests, then exploded into a nationwide pressure campaign.

In 1984, lawyer and anti-apartheid activist Randall Robinson entered the South African embassy with then-D.C. delegate to Congress Walter Fauntroy. They refused to leave, and the South Africans made the mistake of having the pair arrested, instead of just pitching them out on their ears.

That sparked a movement. Every day for months, protesters opposed to the apartheid regime’s treatment of blacks lined up for their arrest moment. Celebrities flocked to the protests, organized by Mr. Robinson’s TransAfrica Forum, to help raise its profile.

It was a turning point in US attitudes toward South Africa, leading among other things to increased congressional pressure for real change in the nation’s repressive political system.

Among the arrestees in those 1984-85 protests were actor Danny Glover and Coretta Scott King, widow of Martin Luther King Jr. On Friday, Coretta King’s son Martin Luther King III was arrested with Clooney, as was Nicole Lee, current TransAfrica president.

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President Obama talks to a crowd about American energy at Prince George's Community College in Largo, Maryland, Thursday. The Obama campaign is holding screenings of 'The Road We’ve Traveled' across the US on Thursday night. (Larry Downing/Reuters)

New Obama movie: more love letter than documentary (+video)

By Linda Feldmann, Staff writer / 03.15.12

Barack Obama the Movie debuts Thursday night. No, we’re not talking another chapter of “Game Change,” the new HBO film that dramatizes Sarah Palin’s rocky launch as a national political phenomenon.

Mr. Obama’s reelection campaign is advertising “The Road We’ve Traveled” as a 17-minute documentary that chronicles the first three years of his presidency. But really, it’s an infomercial, aimed at reminding the legions who voted for Obama four years ago why they liked him and why they should get excited again – and donate and volunteer.

A two-minute trailer released Thursday morning begins with the sonorous voice of actor Tom Hanks: “How do we understand this president and his time in office? Do we look at the day’s headlines, or do we remember what we as a country have been through?”

Clearly, the central theme of the film isn’t going to be, “How you’re better off now than you were four years ago,” with unemployment hanging tough at 8.3 percent and foreclosures up in many states. Rather, it will be more, “Here are the disasters I have prevented,” whether it be the economic crisis or the impending collapse of the auto industry. Add in health-care reform, and you have a record that may not be popular across the board, but can at least rally the Democratic base. The killing of Osama bin Laden is the kicker.

In fact, the film’s director, Academy Award winner Davis Guggenheim, asserted on CNN last week that the biggest “negative” he found about Obama was that 17 minutes wasn’t enough time to chronicle all his accomplishments. Interviewer Piers Morgan nearly jumped out of his chair.

"Oh, come off it!" he said.

"But where do you find fault in him, personally?" Mr. Morgan tried again. "I don't, frankly," Mr. Guggenheim replied.

OK, so the movie is more love letter than “documentary.” But at least it gives loyal Democrats a counter-argument to the Obama-bashing that has infused the GOP primaries (when the candidates aren’t aiming at one another). And independent voters aren’t likely to see the film, because it takes a certain partisan motivation to find it. So the choice of the controversial Elizabeth Warren as one of the people delivering testimonials isn’t risky. Ms. Warren, Obama’s former adviser on consumer protection and now a Senate candidate in Massachusetts, is a rock star to liberals.

The Obama campaign is holding screenings across the US Thursday night, including an invitation-only event for entertainment-industry VIPs in Beverly Hills, Calif. Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt will speak with the audience after, according to The Hollywood Reporter. So will Guggenheim, who won his Oscar for directing “An Inconvenient Truth,” the documentary with former Vice President Al Gore. Guggenheim also produced a 30-minute ad for Obama before the 2008 election.

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Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum speaks to an audience at a town hall meeting in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Wednesday. (Dennis M. Rivera Pichardo/AP)

Why Rick Santorum might not benefit from a Newt Gingrich exit (+video)

By Peter Grier, Staff writer / 03.15.12

Would Rick Santorum be better off if Newt Gingrich dropped out of the GOP presidential race? That’s the conventional insider D.C. wisdom. The reasoning is simple: Mr. Santorum’s vote, plus Mr. Gingrich’s, is bigger than Mitt Romney’s total. Add the two conservatives together, and you trump the guy Newt needles as a “Massachusetts moderate.”

The problem here may be that this math doesn’t tell the full story. It’s possible that Santorum would benefit little, if at all, from a Gingrich campaign exit.

Why? Well, first look at it this way: Gingrich in essence has already dropped out, and just doesn’t know it. His support is shrinking to the point where it just wouldn’t help Santorum all that much.

The latest RealClearPolitics rolling average of major polls has Gingrich at 14 percent of the vote, only three points ahead of Ron Paul. Yes, if you add that to Santorum’s 29 percent, you get 43 percent – a figure nine points bigger than Romney’s 34 percent share. But remember, not all of Gingrich’s vote would migrate to the Pennsylvanian social conservative.

For Gingrich backers, Santorum is not an automatic second choice. A recent Fox News poll found that about 53 percent of the ex-Speaker’s vote would indeed move to Santorum, while 47 percent would go to Romney. This indicates that on a national basis Santorum would do only a bit better if Gingrich decides it’s time to stay home and work on children’s books about the Founding Fathers with his wife, Callista.

And our second point is this: A little dab doesn’t do it for Santorum. He’s already far enough behind Mr. Romney in the delegate count that he needs a huge boost if he’s ever going to catch up.

We won’t list a hard delegate count here, because at this point they’re still notional – in some caucus states (we’re looking at you, Maine) delegates won’t be bound to a candidate until after state conventions. But Fox News has crunched the numbers and says that, in general, Santorum has to win about 66 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. That’s a big jump in game for a candidate who has won only about 27 percent of the delegates allocated so far.

And, third, the upcoming electoral landscape doesn’t lend itself to such a performance, whether Gingrich is in or Gingrich is out. There are few winner-take-all states left in which Santorum could make big gains. Instead, delegates are doled out proportionately.

In some states, candidates have to hit a threshold vote to qualify for this proportional split. Gingrich is fading to the point where he’s unlikely to hit such thresholds, meaning his presence in wouldn’t affect Santorum’s take. In other states, the allocation is proportional by congressional district. Gingrich’s vote now isn’t concentrated enough in any locale to flip a district Santorum’s way.

Got that? The bottom line is that Gingrich doesn’t have enough votes to give Santorum, and the way ahead is so rocky that Rick needs more than ex-Newt backers to boost him to the summit.

As Gingrich himself has noted, Santorum in fact might be better off if the former stays in the race. With two opponents draining away votes, Romney might not hit the figure of 1,144 delegates he needs to wrap up the nomination prior to the party's national convention in Tampa, Fla. And if Republicans assemble in Florida without an anointed champion, all bets are off.

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Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney greets Alabama residents at a campaign event at The Whistle Stop Café in Mobile, Ala., Monday. (Keith Necaise/Reuters)

A Southern victory for Mitt Romney? Tuesday could be the charm. (+video)

By Amanda Paulson, Staff Writer / 03.12.12

Mitt Romney celebrated his 65th birthday on Monday – and suggested to supporters in Alabama that a primary victory in the South would be the perfect birthday present.

“Thanks so much for giving me this birthday present. Hopefully, I can unwrap it tomorrow,” he told a crowd at the Whistle Stop restaurant in Mobile, Ala.

If Mr. Romney does score a victory on Tuesday in either Alabama or Mississippi, it will be a first for the former Massachusetts governor. Though he won in Florida in January, that state isn't considered a part of the cultural and political South (and he lost the more conservative Florida panhandle badly).

Despite Romney's struggles in that region, it's just possible he could get the birthday gift he's hoping for on Tuesday.

Right now, polls show him virtually tied with both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in Alabama. (The most recent poll from Public Policy Polling actually has Romney leading with 31 percent, compared with 30 percent for Mr. Gingrich and 29 percent for Mr. Santorum – but the differences are within the poll's margin of error.)

In Mississippi, polls are also showing a very close race. The latest PPP poll has Gingrich slightly ahead of Romney and Santorum (33 percent to 31 percent and 27 percent, respectively), and a Rasmussen poll conducted several days ago had Romney leading by 8 points.

A win in either state would be big for Romney, not so much because of the delegates at stake (between them, they have 90 delegates), but because of the symbolic victory of finally making an inroad into the South.

Romney himself poked fun at his fish-out-of-water character in Southern states – including total lack of familiarity with either the cuisine or activities like hunting. He told Alabama Republicans that, "I'm looking forward to going out and hunting with you sometime and you can actually show me which end of the rifle to point." He later joked that, "last night I was in Mississippi, by the way, and I had catfish for the second time. It was delicious, just like first time."

Romney also campaigned Monday with comedian Jeff Foxworthy, best known for his "you might be a redneck..." one-liners.

But all his self-deprecating humor aside, the South has been elusive terrain for Romney. His identity as a former Massachusetts governor and a Mormon have made it harder for him to connect with many conservative and Evangelical voters – or to convince them of his conservative credentials.

So how is he now on the verge of a possible win (or even two wins) in Deep South territory?

His biggest help seems to be coming from his rivals. Neither Gingrich nor Santorum has emerged as the strong Romney alternative in the region, and as a result, the votes of more conservative Republicans who don't want Romney may be split.

Gingrich's only two wins to date have been in Georgia (his home state) and South Carolina, and it's the one region he's been able to compete solidly in. Santorum, who trails Romney in the delegate tally 217 to 454 (compared with Gingrich's 107), may be Romney's closest competitor, but his inability to convince Gingrich to drop out has made it tough for him to amass the votes he needs, even in more conservative states.

If Gingrich fails to score wins in Tuesday, his justification for remaining in the race will become even murkier – but he has vowed that he's not leaving anytime soon.

And the Gingrich-Santorum split has left a solid opening for Romney in territory that until recently has seemed almost impossible for him.

In a blog noting the strong geographical trends in the primary voting so far this season, New York Times polling expert Nate Silver writes:

"In the Republican primaries, if geography is destiny as much as demography is, then Alabama, which votes on Tuesday, could be an especially interesting test case. It borders Tennessee, Georgia and Florida, which are states carried by Mr. Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Mr. Romney respectively (although Mr. Romney lost most counties in the Florida panhandle region, which borders Alabama). Perhaps fittingly, polls show a virtual three-way tie in Alabama thus far."

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Supporters cheer as election results come in at the Super Tuesday primary watch party for Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Boston, on March 6. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

Mitt Romney: Is his lead really insurmountable?

By Amanda Paulson, Staff writer / 03.07.12

After Super Tuesday's vote, Mitt Romney is still the favorite for the GOP presidential nominee – although no one could make the case that he generates broad enthusiasm among Republicans.

Now, his team is using math to make the case to his rivals that they should drop out.

The team's argument: It's impossible to conceive of any scenario in which Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich gets more delegates than Mr. Romney and wins the nomination in his place. And for the good of the party – and to start coalescing around someone who could beat President Obama in November – they should drop out now.

"Super Tuesday dramatically reduced the likelihood that any of Governor Romney's opponents can obtain the Republican nomination," Rich Beeson, Romney's political director, told reporters Wednesday. "As Governor Romney's opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person's odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama's."

Romney aides said they would be pressing hard behind the scenes for both Messrs. Gingrich and Santorum to drop out. (Ron Paul, whose goals are somewhat different, will almost certainly remain until the end.)

The Romney campaign's calculations: The former governor is far ahead of the other candidates in terms of delegate count now. Although counts aren't final because some delegates are unpledged, he currently has about 415 delegates – more than 35 percent of the 1,144 needed to secure the nomination. Santorum and Gingrich have 176 and 105, respectively, and Representative Paul has 47.

Moreover, there are few big states left like Arizona and Florida that are winner-take-all. Thus, even in states that Romney loses, he's likely to win a large number of delegates (given the closeness of the races so far). Plus, the few states that are winner-take-all – like Delaware, Utah, and New Jersey – are ones that seem more favorable to Romney.

Is Romney's team right? And, if it is right, how likely would it be able to persuade Santorum and Gingrich to drop out?

After a look at the numbers, it's certainly hard to imagine a nominee other than Romney – but it's not totally inconceivable. At the rate he's going, it will take him a long time – at least through May – to rack up enough delegates to clinch the nomination. A lot can happen in that time.

Even if it's impossible for Santorum or Gingrich to overtake Romney and win the nomination, they could prevent him from getting the majority he needs, which would force a brokered convention. (This has always seemed unlikely, but some political pundits and GOP insiders have been salivating about it – and even hoping for it – for several months.)

A brokered convention could possibly free up party leaders to tap someone other than Romney. A long-shot scenario, but a possibility.

Writing in The Weekly Standard on Wednesday, William Kristol lays out another scenario in which Santorum wins:

"When one tries to do delegate projections, assuming that current voting patterns continue and taking into account various Santorum ballot access problems, one finds that Romney will probably continue to hover at a bit over 50 percent of the delegates chosen. He'll clearly be in the lead. But it's hard to see him amassing so insurmountable a lead by mid-May so as to be able to discourage Santorum from hoping to be able to catch him at the end with a huge victory in Texas on May 29, and then big upsets in California and New Jersey on June 5. Unlikely? Sure. Impossible? I don't think so."

All of which makes the Romney team's argument to Santorum and Gingrich a tougher sell.

"What Romney is trying to do is call the game before it's even half time because he has a lead," Santorum adviser John Brabender told CNN, dismissing the notion that the nomination is already decided.

Gingrich, far more than Santorum, seems to have few reasons to stay in the race. His only wins are Georgia, his home state, and neighboring South Carolina. He failed Tuesday to even notch a second-place finish in Tennessee or Oklahoma, both states where he seemed to be well positioned to beat Romney.

On Wednesday, Santorum's supporters were mounting pressure of their own for Gingrich to drop out.

"With Gingrich exiting the race it would be a true head-to-head race and conservatives would be able to make a choice between a consistent conservative in Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney," said Stuart Roy, an adviser to a pro-Santorum "super PAC," in a statement. "For instance, with Gingrich out of the race, Santorum would have won both Ohio and Michigan. Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative." 

But don't expect Gingrich to leave anytime soon. He has made clear his intention to stay in the race, telling supporters Tuesday night, "I'm the tortoise; I just take one step at a time."

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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney talks to reporters on his campaign plane before taking off for Boston, on March 6, in Columbus, Ohio. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

Beyond Super Tuesday: Will calendar be kinder to a battered Mitt Romney?

By Amanda Paulson, Staff Writer / 03.07.12

For Mitt Romney, Super Tuesday could have been worse – he did, after all, win 6 of 10 states, about half of the delegates, and some 40 percent of the popular vote. 

But it also could have been a lot better.

Instead of wrapping up his nomination and convincing doubters that he can, in fact, win over conservative, Southern, and rural voters, he now looks to be entering a long slog into the spring before he can finally declare himself the GOP presidential nominee.

Yes, barring a major upset, Romney will still be the eventual nominee – but some Republicans are already worried about the toll that the repeated beatings will take on him, and what it will mean for his strength as a candidate in November.

Looking ahead at the rest of March and into April, the primary calendar isn't particularly kind to Romney.

The next three contests are in Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama – all unfavorable territory for him. Hawaii and Illinois are coming up this month too, and should be safer states for Romney, but so are Louisiana and Missouri. The calendar doesn't get a lot better for Romney until April 24, when New York, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island vote (as well as Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum's home state).

All of which – combined with his opponents' determination to stay in the race – means that Romney likely faces a long slog to the nomination, and a continued pummeling from Mr. Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and the super PACs who support them.

"Republican voters have gotten a good, long look at Mr. Romney; they find him likeable enough and not much more than that," writes New York Times polling expert Nate Silver. "Were his vote total just 3 percent lower in every state, distributed among the other candidates in some reasonable fashion, he would have lost Ohio and Alaska on Tuesday, and Michigan and Maine in February – and would have clearly lost Iowa rather than having 'tied' there."

CNN columnist John Avlon calls the current situation "close to a worst-case scenario" for Republicans, noting that even if Romney were to win every state going forward (which is unlikely), he wouldn't clinch the nomination until May – and that he may still not be able to win enough delegates to avoid a contested convention.

Some Romney detractors, like Erick Erickson from the conservative Red State blog, have conceded that Romney is likely to be the nominee – but they're pretty unhappy about where that leaves Republicans.

"[Romney] will be the nominee having lost the South, Appalachia, evangelicals, conservatives, and blue collar voters. He will go into the general election deeply distrusted by his own base while having to woo independent voters. This is not a dazzling position to be in to beat an incumbent president," writes Erickson.

"He won his home state of Michigan by less than 3 percent. He won Ohio barely after pouring in money. A win is a win is a win. But with each Romney win, he comes away even more badly bruised. The rest of March will be just as brutal. What a mess."

Others think Romney's weaknesses have been overblown. In her conservative Right Turn blog, Jennifer Rubin notes that Romney won Ohio, dubbed his "must-win" state, has won states in every region but the deep South, and has racked up far more delegates than any other candidate.

"It is only in a media environment in which so many pundits are rooting for the pummeling to continue in the GOP could this be characterized as 'failing to close the deal' or evidence of weakness by Romney," she wrote Wednesday.

Still, many conservative voters seem far from convinced.

One of the worst signs for Romney Tuesday actually came from a state that he won handily: Virginia.

Romney got 60 percent of the vote there, while Ron Paul got 40 percent.

The problem? Those were the only two names on the ballot, since Gingrich and Santorum didn't get enough signatures to qualify, and in 2008, Mr. Paul got just 4.5 percent of the Virginia vote. Since it's unlikely that so many Virginians suddenly switched over to Paul, that 40 percent can be more easily seen as a protest vote by Republicans who cared most about registering a vote against Romney – hardly a mark of enthusiasm from his party.

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Newt Gingrich speaks in Duluth, Ga., Tuesday. If the Republican presidential candidate and former House Speaker experiences a Super Tuesday resurgence, it would be his third. (Evan Vucci/AP)

Newt Gingrich on Super Tuesday: Time for a (third) resurgence?

By Amanda Paulson, Staff writer / 03.06.12

Most eyes are on Mitt Romney on Tuesday – the favorite for the GOP nomination heading into the Super Tuesday voting and almost certainly still the favorite at the end of the night.

But Newt Gingrich may have an interesting role to play, too – as either spoiler or as distant contender for the conservative Romney alternative.

If Tuesday is the beginning of a Gingrich resurgence, it will be the third for the former House speaker. He first spiked in popularity in early December (after having been written off as a candidate by most political observers last summer) and then surged again around his unexpected win in South Carolina on Jan. 21.

Since then, however, Mr. Gingrich's numbers have sunk – and South Carolina is still the only state he's won. Rick Santorum – especially after his trio of wins in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri on Feb. 7 – has taken over the mantle of the conservative contender.

But Tuesday is Gingrich's big day: His home state of Georgia votes (and with 76 delegates, is the biggest prize of the night), and he looks certain to win it by a big margin. CNN has already called the state for Gingrich based on exit polls.  

Moreover, he's surging in polls in some other states voting on Tuesday. He's gaining ground in Tennessee and could end up getting a number of delegates from both Tennessee and Oklahoma, even if he doesn't win either state.

Gingrich's own prediction, on Fox News on Monday, may be a bit optimistic. He told Sean Hannity, "I think we're clearly going to carry Georgia by a margin four or five times the size of Mitt Romney's margin in Michigan."

He continued, "We're surging here in Tennessee, we're surging with J.C. Watts's leadership in Oklahoma, we have a good chance to pick up some delegates in Ohio. We see some opportunities in North Dakota, Idaho, even in Massachusetts, where conservative Republicans regard Romney as a liberal governor, and there is a faction that would like to split. Not a majority, but a faction."

It's certainly possible that Gingrich could have a better-than-expected night, and he could even earn more delegates than Mr. Santorum. The nomination battle then moves into several states – Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi – where Gingrich could have a decent shot.

All of which may still not put him on the path to the nomination. It's hard to see Gingrich, at this point, making up enough ground to topple Romney. But it could give him more justification to continue his fight (he has already vowed that he's in it until the end). And it could make him a factor in the race, primarily in hurting Santorum's chances.

Just as Gingrich is surging, Santorum is seeing much of his support sagging. He needs a good night on Tuesday to prove that his earlier victories weren't a fluke.

The candidate that may have the most to gain by a Gingrich surge: Romney.

As long as Santorum and Gingrich remain in the race, duking it out with each other for the mantle of "true conservative," Romney lacks a solid opponent. The far right's inability to coalesce around an anti-Romney candidate may end up being the boost that Romney has needed to claim the nomination, despite an apparent lack of enthusiasm.

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Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, speaks to supporters Monday during a town hall meeting at the Bonner County Fairgrounds in Sandpoint, Idaho. (Matt Mills McKnight/AP)

Super Tuesday mystery: Will Ron Paul win his first state?

By Mark Trumbull, Staff writer / 03.06.12

Ron Paul is hoping North Dakota will provide him with his first win in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

North Dakota's caucus system makes it potentially fertile ground for the Texas congressman.

In states like Iowa and Maine, his followers have shown strong turnout and devotion in the tug-and-pull caucus process that involves speeches by advocates for various candidates, not merely pulling a lever in a booth.

It doesn't hurt that Mr. Paul himself plans to speak in Fargo, N.D., Tuesday to help make his case to the state's voters.

“We are excited to welcome back Ron Paul to Fargo and to North Dakota on this pivotal day for the state and nation," said Jared Hendrix, the Paul campaign's director in the state, in a news release.

So far, the candidate carrying the torch of libertarian views hasn't won a state outright. But that could change as of March 6.

Ten states are up for grabs, with the biggest delegate prizes like Georgia and Virginia seen by analysts as out of reach for Paul. Media attention in recent days, for example, has focused on the battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum for Ohio.

But, in addition to North Dakota, Paul supporters are talking of possible wins in Idaho and Alaska, other Super Tuesday states that combine a caucus system with relatively small populations. 

In North Dakota, where caucus events around the state run from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. Central time, voters do not need to be registered Republicans to participate, although they must have an affiliation with the party (voting Republican in the last general election or intending to vote with the party this fall).

Some of Paul's best showings so far in the primary season have been in caucus states, including Iowa (third place, not far behind the leaders) and Maine (a narrow loss to Mitt Romney).

Just a few days ago, Paul edged out Mr. Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, for second place in Washington State's caucus, with support of 25 percent of those participating.

So far, Paul has amassed 37 delegates, versus 173 for former Massachusetts Governor Romney and 74 for Santorum.

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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at a town hall meeting at Capital University in Bexley, Ohio, Wednesday. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

Mitt Romney gaffe monster: Why does he misspeak?

By Peter Grier, Staff writer / 03.01.12

Why does Mitt Romney so often get tangled up by his own words like he’s trapped in jungle underbrush?

It happened again Wednesday during an interview with the Ohio News Network. Asked whether he supports the Blunt amendment – legislation that would exempt religiously-affiliated employers from providing employees with contraception – Mr. Romney said he didn’t. Then he pivoted to attack Rick Santorum, saying he didn’t believe campaigns needed to interfere in the relationships of husbands and wives.

The problem is that Romney does support the Blunt amendment. That’s a GOP given, since it would overturn an Obama administration health-care mandate. Within hours, Romney was on the Howie Carr radio show doing a mea culpa.

“I didn’t understand the question. Of course I support the Blunt amendment ... I think every Republican is supporting it,” said Romney.

We’ll judge this as a gaffe, not a flip-flop. Romney wasn’t against the bill before he was for it – he was against it all the time, but that wasn’t what was coming out of his mouth.

Why does he misspeak so often, or say stuff that makes him seem like J. Thurston Romney III? If he’s not putting his wife in several Cadillacs that were undoubtedly purchased from his NASCAR team-owning friends, he’s betting Rick Perry $10,000 that corporations are people, my friend. Or something like that.

Well, we’ve got a couple of theories, above and beyond the obvious one that campaigning for president for years on end is tiring.

His mouth is faster than his brain. 

Watch the Ohio News Network interview, and it seems like Romney has already moved past the actual question and is setting up to go after Mr. Santorum. His mouth is moving, but his brain is still formulating anti-Rick stuff. Anybody who’s appeared on TV can understand this phenomenon. You’re not there to have a discussion. You’re there to move from one-liner to talking point, and back.

There’s a technical neurology term for this, by the way. It’s called “Mouth-moving-faster-than-brainitis.”

He babbles. 

Some of Romney’s other verbalosities have come when he’s trying to fill empty space. A voter or interviewer will ask an open-ended question, and just sit there, and Romney feels compelled to say something. It’s an old reporter’s trick: don’t ask questions, just stare at the person you’re grilling. You’d be amazed at how many people just start rattling away.

He suffers under the Imperious Curse. 

OK, this is our editor’s theory: Somebody else is controlling Romney and gleefully forcing him to say unfortunate things. In the Harry Potter world, there’s something called an “Imperious Curse,” in which you control another person’s thoughts. It’s like that. Hmm, who would do that? Who reads a lot, is himself verbally dexterous, and beams like a happy kid whenever Romney blurts out something bad? Gingrich!!

Not every pundit thinks Romney’s gaffes are unusually numerous, or that big a problem.

“I don’t want to say that stuff is irrelevant, especially in primary elections where there’s so little to differentiate the candidates in the first place, but the truth is that there’s a lot more to being a good politician than sounding like one,” wrote political scientist and blogger Jonathan Bernstein yesterday in the Washington Post.

Romney’s political skills are underrated, according to Mr. Bernstein. The former Massachusetts governor is good at raising money and organizing allies and political networks. He’s also generally molded his policy positions to what the primary electorate wants.

If Romney wins the nomination and loses the general election, his gaffes will be magnified in retrospect. If he becomes president they’ll be minimized.

“He’s not a great politician. But he’s a good one,” added Bernstein on his own A Plain Blog About Politics.

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