Since 2022 Trump has rebounded steadily. What happened?
| Manchester, N.H.
Not that long ago, many Republican voters were uncertain about former President Donald Trump. Even self-identified Trump fans expressed interest in finding a “fresh face” – someone who could carry his policies into the future. Someone untainted by the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Someone without all the legal troubles and the unfiltered mouth.
“Trumpism without Trump,” the mantra went.
Why We Wrote This
As New Hampshire votes, the departure of Ron DeSantis underscores how dominant Donald Trump has become in the Republican nomination race. Yet back in 2022, his rebound looked far from certain. What explains the shift?
For a time, Ron DeSantis looked like he might fit the bill. In the wake of the 2022 midterms, in which the Florida governor won reelection by 19 points even as many Trump-promoted candidates lost, he briefly led in GOP presidential primary polls.
Today, however, the Floridian is out of the race and has endorsed Mr. Trump. On the eve of the New Hampshire primary – now a two-person race between Mr. Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – polls show Mr. Trump with a solid lead. A majority of Republicans appear ready to support him despite – perhaps even because of – the 91 felony counts he faces in four criminal cases.
A combination of factors appears to be in play. Polls suggest a circling-the-wagons response to the lawsuits. Ultimately, many Republicans may simply believe Mr. Trump is the strongest candidate to take on President Joe Biden in the fall.
Not that long ago, many Republican voters were uncertain about former President Donald Trump.
In interviews and surveys, even self-identified Trump fans expressed interest in finding a “fresh face” – someone who could carry his policies into the future. Someone untainted by the riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Someone without all the legal troubles and the unfiltered mouth.
“Trumpism without Trump,” the mantra went.
Why We Wrote This
As New Hampshire votes, the departure of Ron DeSantis underscores how dominant Donald Trump has become in the Republican nomination race. Yet back in 2022, his rebound looked far from certain. What explains the shift?
For a time, Ron DeSantis looked like he might fit the bill. In the wake of the 2022 midterms, in which the Florida governor won reelection by 19 points even as many Trump-promoted candidates lost, he briefly led in GOP presidential primary polls.
Today, however, the Floridian is out of the race, having endorsed Mr. Trump after a dismal campaign that never could find its footing. And on the eve of the New Hampshire primary – now a two-person race between Mr. Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – polls show Mr. Trump with a solid lead. A majority of Republicans say they support another Trump nomination, despite – or, for many supporters, because of – the 91 felony counts he faces in four criminal cases.
The former president’s resurgent hold on his party, as reflected in last week’s strong performance in the Iowa caucuses and a recent flood of high-level endorsements, can be attributed to a combination of factors. Polls suggest a circling-the-wagons response from voters after his criminal indictments. The passage of time may have softened some voters’ memories of the chaotic final months of his presidency.
At the same time, given the strength of Mr. Trump’s persona, for better or worse, “Trumpism without Trump” may never have really been a workable concept. Mr. DeSantis was hamstrung, too, by his reluctance to bash Mr. Trump, lest he alienate the people he hoped would migrate to him.
Ultimately, however, many Republicans may have found their way back to supporting Mr. Trump simply because they do not want President Joe Biden to win reelection – and they believe Mr. Trump is the strongest candidate to take him on.
“Republicans believe [Mr. Trump] deserves another chance,” says Scott Jennings, a political adviser in the George W. Bush White House. “They believe he was treated unfairly, and they think [President] Biden is that weak.”
Haley and the party’s old-style wing
Ms. Haley, the remaining Trump rival still in the race, has offered a more direct contrast in both style and substance than Mr. DeSantis did. Much of her platform is a kind of throwback to old-style establishment Republicanism that stands for fiscal responsibility, American leadership in the world, and conservative values.
As United Nations ambassador for two years under Mr. Trump, Ms. Haley also represents a global perspective, in direct contrast to the “America First” posture of both Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis. And more than a few Haley fans, men and women, say that it’s about time the United States has a female president.
Ms. Haley frequently points to polls showing her beating Mr. Biden in a head-to-head matchup by double digits.
General election polls show Mr. Trump slightly ahead of Mr. Biden on average, which dampens Ms. Haley’s argument of electability – perhaps her strongest selling point. For many New Hampshire Republicans, polls showing Mr. Trump winning in November are all they need in deciding what to do Tuesday.
Mr. Trump is a “cad; we know that,” says Joe Hollen, a Trump supporter from Weare who works in information technology. But “with all these stupid lawsuits, yeah, they’re trying to get him. And I’d want him as a boss,” he adds. “He knows how to run things. He’s a fighter.”
Dueling views of Trump
There are many ways to look at Mr. Trump. In one view, he’s damaged goods, twice impeached, multiply indicted, and only a few years younger than the octogenarian Mr. Biden. Critics note his verbal gaffes, such as confusing Ms. Haley with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And critics say his rhetoric seems more unhinged than ever, replete with a verbal nod about being a dictator in a second term – but only “on Day 1.”
But go to a big Trump rally in a sports arena, like the one in Manchester last Saturday night, and it can feel like 2016 all over again. He draws an audience of thousands – far surpassing the mere hundred or so who show up for Haley events – and commands the stage for an hour and a half with vigor and, at times, entertainingly.
Some analysts say Mr. Trump has once again benefited from a divided opposition – with anti-Trump Republicans unable to settle on a single candidate early enough to create a competitive contest before it was too late.
“The party didn’t coalesce around one alternative to Trump, and that’s what the skeptics needed,” says Shana Gadarian, a political scientist and expert on voter psychology at Syracuse University.
But Mr. Trump’s early vulnerability in the polls, if it ever really existed, also presented his rivals with a deceptively difficult task: winning over Trump fans who may have been open to an alternative but also didn’t want to hear any criticism of the former president.
Certainly, there’s a small slice of the party, “Never Trumpers,” who won’t vote for him – and will either write in a different Republican, vote for Mr. Biden, or stay home.
But those in the dominant cohort of Republicans either have always been enthusiastic about Mr. Trump or say they will vote for him grudgingly if he’s the nominee – flaws and all.
They know what Mr. Trump is about and say they’re willing to live with those real or perceived flaws. The main goal is to defeat what they view as Mr. Biden’s increasingly left-leaning policies – including an “open” southern border and student loan forgiveness – and continuing economic challenges.
“People have to make choices, and can do mental gymnastics to justify voting a particular way,” says Ms. Gadarian.
A prime example: evangelical Christians who support Mr. Trump foremost because he appointed the Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade – a long-held goal of opponents of abortion rights.
“You can say, for example, that character isn’t really that important; because the other side is so bad, we must fight fire with fire,” Ms. Gadarian says.
What next as New Hampshire votes?
Analysts also say that concerns about the future of American democracy in a second Trump term are prominent to Democratic elites more than to everyday voters. Ask voters in New Hampshire what they care about, and responses include the cost of home heating oil, health insurance, and the flood of migrants at the southern border, not whether Mr. Trump is a wannabe dictator.
In tomorrow’s vote, one wild card is independents – the 40% of the electorate registered as “undeclared,” who can vote in either primary. Another wild card is the large pool of new potential voters: people who have moved into the state since 2020, plus young people now old enough to vote – up to 22% of the state’s electorate, according to a University of New Hampshire survey.
Mr. Trump may seem to have the nomination locked up, but New Hampshire has a history of surprises in its first-in-the-nation primary, and if Ms. Haley can come anywhere close to Mr. Trump, that may be enough for her to stay in the race.
But the South Carolina GOP primary on Feb. 24 could be tough for Ms. Haley, despite her status as a former governor. Mr. Trump has already locked up the endorsements of a slew of prominent Palmetto State politicians, including the current governor. Many appeared onstage with the former president at the Manchester rally last Saturday. And the day before, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, a onetime rival for the GOP presidential nomination, endorsed Mr. Trump at a rally in Concord.
