California a political model? Golden State has most competitive elections.
Known for gridlock and dysfunction, California has the most competitive elections, according to a new survey. It's the result of state political reforms that are now taking effect.
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The reason voters should want to see competitive elections is because when an incumbent is able to sail through the primary and general elections, he or she is not being held accountable, says Tyler King, lead researcher for Ballotpedia's survey.Skip to next paragraph
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That can be particularly true in places like pre-reform California, where districts are drawn to give one party a clear advantage. In those cases, it is relatively unlikely that the average incumbent will see much of a challenge in the general election. That makes the primaries even more important.
“To put it plainly, a lot of races are decided in the primary election,” says Mr. King.
Competitive primaries also force incumbents, who generally have a much larger war chest, to spend more of that money earlier, making the system fairer, King adds.
King and other analysts say this competitiveness could help break California's partisan gridlock.
“The upshot of all of this is that with a wider set of more competitive races, we should expect to see more median candidates, that is, more moderates and thus, the poles – far right and far left – should come to the middle more,” says David McCuan, a political scientist at Sonoma State University. “And if there is anything that Sacramento needs it is more compromise and harmony and less acrimony.”
Other analysts are less hopeful. Some of the new competitiveness is because redistricting has pitted incumbents against each other in new districts. Next election cycle, that won't be the case.
“We need to see a longer trend line before we start celebrating the revival of competition,” adds John Johannes, a political scientist at Villanova University.
Moreover, by one important measure of "competitiveness" California fails spectacularly, adds Professor Pitney: “In much of California, the Republican Party has essentially gone out of business. Democrats currently control all statewide offices. Within an election or two, they will probably have two-thirds majorities in both chambers of the Legislature. Any measure of 'competitiveness' that overlooks one-party dominance is necessarily incomplete.”
Still, some observers see something promising in this round of elections.
“One of the great dilemmas of all of us wanting to make the system work better is to decide whether you want to make a great big change all at once or a series of small, incremental changes,” says Jim Mayer, executive director of California Forward, a governance-reform project. “We found you can’t change the Legislature overnight, but if you can change the rules about incentives that encourage people to reach across the aisle, you will start to see serious improvement over time.”
He sees a potential turning point with the election of California’s next round of freshman legislators. “In the conversations we’ve had with those in the legislature as well as first-time candidates, we’re seeing the thinking is already different.”