Government shutdown Friday? Why Tuesday could be crucial.

Although a government shutdown is looming at week's end if no deal is struck on spending for current fiscal year, House Republicans are preparing to open a second front in the budget wars Tuesday. Rep. Paul Ryan (R) of Wisconsin is set to release the budget for 2012, which will seek to cut at least $4 trillion from federal spending over the next 10 years, establish spending caps, and scale back entitlement programs.

The release of the 2012 budget Tuesday could change politics surrounding a potential government shutdown Friday. Already, some Republicans are suggesting that they should give in to Democrats' demands on spending for 2011 and avoid a government shutdown so they can focus their efforts on the 2012 budget. The logic is simple: the 2012 budget shifts the scale of proposed cuts from billions to trillions.

As a result, House conservatives may be able to more easily back a compromise plan on 2011 spending, which includes about $30 billion less in cuts than they want.

The 2012 budget “is a dramatic proposal, and it gives the freshmen some cover,” says Julian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Princeton University in New Jersey. Congressman “Ryan is talking about going after all the big entitlements and making the kind of cuts in the future that will fundamentally restructure government.”

“They’ve made this [2012] budget symbolically so charged that it gives Republicans an excuse to compromise [on FY 2011 spending] based on the compromise that they’re going to go big in the budget,” he adds. “That’s quite useful.”

'Time is not on our side'

The compromise deal for 2011 spending would reportedly include about $32 billion in spending cuts. But House and Senate negotiators who worked through the weekend are still struggling over which programs to cut. Without agreement on a 2011 spending bill, government funding runs out on April 8.

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