Derailed? Third GOP governor rejects Obama high-speed rail plan.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Wednesday became the third newly elected Republican governor to reject the Obama administration's $53 billion plan to build a nationwide high-speed rail network.

Governor Scott's decision not to build a high-speed rail line between Orlando and Tampa does not yet constitute a state-level revolt against high-speed rail. Similar decisions to opt out of high-speed rail by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Ohio Gov. John Kasich do not critically damage the federal plan, experts say.

But they offer a glimpse of how the Obama rail plan might falter once it arrives at the US House of Representatives, which was recast by same tea party wave that swept the three governors into office. Moreover, the governors' actions could point to a refocusing the federal plan, which seeks to make high-speed rail accessible to 80 percent of Americans within 25 years.

“The plan to reach 80 percent of the US population with passenger rail is somewhat arbitrary – passenger rail should be built only where it is needed and justified, not with some goal of total coverage in mind,” says Michael Gorman, associate professor of business at the University of Dayton in Ohio. “Rejection of passenger rail in states like Florida and Ohio is different than the more densely populated areas in California and the Northeast, because projected ridership is lower and passenger rail is less economically justified.”

Governor spells out concerns

In declining more than $2 billion in federal funds for the proposed Orlando-to-Tampa line, Scott said federal government’s ridership and revenue estimates are too optimistic, meaning that Florida taxpayers would have to subsidize the line. He also suggested that cost overruns could leave Florida taxpayers having to foot a $3 billion bill.

“The truth is that this project would be far too costly to taxpayers, and I believe the risk far outweighs the benefits,” Scott said.

These concerns are well-founded, says Ken Button, director of the Center for Transportation Policy at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. “One major concern expressed by the governors is that the ridership will be lower than forecast and [the projects would] turn out to cost much higher," he says. “Experience suggests they will be right: forecasts of all forms of public-transport use throughout the world have tended to be optimistic, and cost estimates have been way below the actual cost.”

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