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Coakley concedes race: five lessons from her campaign

As Martha Coakley concedes the Massachusetts Senate race to Scott Brown, political analysts are already drawing lessons for the midterm elections later this year.

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“Martha Coakley should have defined Scott Brown before he defined himself,” says Jeffrey Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University in Medford, Mass. Coming out of the primary, Coakley could have “put him on the defensive at a time when didn’t have much money to fight back.”

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Not doing this put her in a difficult position once his campaign began building momentum. In the final weeks of the race, when polls showed Brown narrowing the gap, she had to scramble to give voters her interpretation of Brown. In part, she was forced to rely on negative advertising.

“She was very negative,” says Mary Canducci, a Democrat from the Boston neighborhood of West Roxbury who decided to vote for Brown.

4. Define the campaign

Not only did Coakley struggle to influence voters’ perceptions of Brown, but she also had trouble defining herself and her campaign for voters.

“She seemed as though she was running for reelection as attorney general as opposed to running as a new force in Washington,” Mr. Payne says.

Voters didn’t get a sense of who Coakley was. “She was pretty much a generic Democrat,” Professor Berry says. She lacked “compelling campaign themes” and the “warmth and effusiveness that would have played more favorably with the Massachusetts electorate.”

5. Independents can determine the vote

Independents were crucial to Tuesday’s outcome: A majority of voters – 51 percent – are independents in Massachusetts.

While it’s not yet known how many independents voted, “they obviously went big for Brown,” Payne says.

It was a group he targeted aggressively, and he continued an independent-oriented message on election night.

“I hope [Washington is] paying close attention, because tonight the independent voice of Massachusetts has spoken,” he said.

In contrast, Coakley’s campaign seemed to mostly target her Democratic base.

“I don’t think Democrats or Republicans have changed their views much,” Payne says. “Where the differences have happened are with independents who have traditionally voted with Democrats.”

More criticism to come

Even before Tuesday’s election, Coakley was widely criticized for her campaign – something she alluded to in her concession speech.

“There will be plenty of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking,” she said. “We will be honest about the assessment of this race. I fully respect the voters’ choice.”

On the other hand, Brown is credited with running a strong campaign.

“It’s easy for an analyst to pick apart a campaign that failed,” says Berry. But “even the most partisan Democrat would have to say, ‘Well done, Scott Brown. We’ll see you in a few years.’ ”

Staff writer Christa Case Bryant contributed to this report.

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