Surging Obama campaign suggests US racism on the wane

That’s come to be debunked as a current theory, in part because in more-recent elections involving African-Americans the polls have been spot on. Most pollsters have adjusted their methodology to be able to ferret out racial biases that could affect their accuracy.

There are others reasons as well. If someone doesn’t want to vote for Obama because of his race, say some political analysts, they can simply point to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who made harsh anti-American statements in some of his sermons. Then there’s the Obama grass-roots political machine, which has registered thousands of new voters. In fact, some longtime politicians believe the polls could actually underestimate Obama’s support.

Former Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus likes to joke that he’s “one of Barack’s core constituencies: a white guy from the Deep South who was an elected official.” Mr. Mabus notes that just prior to the Mississippi primary election in March, the race between Obama and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was predicted to be very close. The secretary of state estimated that 150,000 people would turn out to vote in the primary. On primary day, more than 450,000 Democrats showed up, and Obama won with 61 percent.

“The polls are missing how many new voters we’re registering – how many people who haven’t voted in a while are getting back interested in the process,” says Mabus. “I think they’re missing the enthusiasm and organizational work. The Obama campaign has the best organization I’ve ever seen. They’re everywhere.”

That has spurred optimism that the US may in fact elect its first African-American president. That’s something Jackie Rivet-River never thought she’d see.

“In my lifetime, I never dreamed that I’d see [an African-American elected president],” says Ms. Rivet-River, an older documentary filmmaker out walking her dog by Lake Michigan in Chicago. “Race isn’t an issue for me, one way or the other.” She believes that in the end Obama will win by a significant margin.

Christy Gozdik, who’s lived in Chicago for 30 years and just lost her job, says race isn’t an issue for her either. But she says she does know at least one person for whom it is. “She won’t admit it, but I know that’s the reason she’s voting for McCain,” says Ms. Gozdik. “I hate to say it, but the racist factor is there.”

Still, Gozdik says people’s concerns about the economy and the unpopularity of the current Republican administration may make race less of a factor this year in particular. “People may be more willing to vote for a minority now because the country is doing so badly,” she says, noting that she also knows a number of people who she might have thought would balk at supporting a black candidate but plan to vote for Obama.

At the Georgia State Farmers’ Market in Forest Park, Ga., just outside the liberal Atlanta beltline, the economy is also top on most voters’ minds.

“The economy is really aggravating everybody,” says Lamar Caskin, a 20-something black man, who’s busy mopping the market’s bathroom stalls. He almost lost his job recently when he couldn’t find gasoline to get to work during the regional shortage that struck the area after hurricanes Gustav and Ike. As a result, he supports Obama’s economic plan, which relies on energy independence and tax breaks for the middle class.

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