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Election wild card: first-time voters

Obama and McCain have traded leads in the polls. But whose supporters will turn out in November?

By Staff writer / September 9, 2008

Who’s up, who’s down: Polls comparing Sen John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama have fluctuated considerably. One factor that makes pollsters’ work challenging is the surge in newly registered voters.

Rebecca Cook/Reuters

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One week, Barack Obama is up by five or six percentage points. But the next, John McCain leads by three. It’s back and forth, up and down.

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So how do we know who’s ahead?

More than in any other presidential election in recent times, polls may be failing to capture accurately what’s happening in the American electorate. There are a couple of reasons, but the most key for the pollsters are massive voter-registration drives, especially by the Democrats, which have created millions of first-time voters. Pollsters aren’t quite sure yet how to calculate the impact of all these new voters on the election.

“The polls could be inaccurate because it’s hard to know how to weight first-time voters. That’s a major problem for pollsters, and there’s a lot of volatility in the electorate now,” says Darrell West, director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Most of the traditional polling methods are based on likely voters, and the likelihood of voting is measured through participation in past elections. Generally, that’s not a big problem because there aren’t that many new voters, but this year, we’ve had a big spike in interest by first-time voters.”

That became especially apparent during the primary season, when voter turnout increased more than 120 percent, and few if any of pollsters predicted it.

The types of people who turned out also caused some surprises. Young people flocked to caucuses and the voting booths, double and even tripling their participation in some states like Iowa. A recent study by Harvard’s Institute of Politics found that in this election, “more than 3-in-5 young voters are excited about the election.”

Hispanics also caught some pollsters off guard during the primaries. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, found that Latinos made up “a growing share” of the turnout in 16 of the 19 states in which exit-poll comparisons could be made between 2004 and 2008.

The most dramatic increases were in California and Texas. In the 2008 California primary, Hispanics made up 30 percent of the Democratic voters, compared with 16 percent in 2004. In Texas, Hispanics made up 32 percent, compared with 24 percent in 2004, according to the report.

The turnout in November

The challenge for pollsters is to figure out how many of those new voters will go back to the polls in November.

“I’m a little humble here: I think the bigger worry about whether our polling is right is who is going to turn out to vote,” Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg told reporters at a Monitor breakfast during the Democratic National Convention in Denver. “The models aren’t very good from the past, and combine that with the well-funded, serious levels of grass-roots organization that we haven’t seen before, and I’m a little nervous.”

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