US 'fully committed' in Afghanistan, Panetta says. But no troops after 2014?

Equally important, leaking the zero-option scenario is meant to send a message to Karzai, Mr. Dressler adds.

“What the White House is trying to demonstrate is, ‘We could possibly completely withdraw, so when you come to D.C., just be aware that this is a two-sided conversation. This isn’t going to be you coming to D.C. to tell us what we’re going to do,’ ” Dressler says.

In the past, Karzai has been vocal in his demands that US troops not conduct night raids, for example. A key point in discussions will also involve whether US troops and contractors should have immunity from prosecution if any Afghan official may want to charge them with war crimes.

This latter point was the stumbling block when US forces were pulling out of Iraq. The administration ultimately decided against leaving US troops behind when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would not compromise on immunity.

Karzai, on the other hand, has a greater interest in keeping US troops in his country than the Iraqis had, Dressler argues. “He also understands that the Obama administration doesn’t have much desire to keep troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014,” he says.

The cost of the war, in the midst of fiscal challenges, is one big reason for the reluctance to keep troops in Afghanistan. The war is politically unpopular as well. 

“The other thing that’s not getting enough attention is the cost that the troop numbers imply – and what’s the political supportability of those long-term costs on Capitol Hill,” says retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, who commanded US forces in Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005.

There are human costs as well. Some 1,000 US service members could die between now and when US combat forces are expected to leave the country at the end of 2014, according to the estimates of defense analyst Anthony Cordesman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

How, Secretary Panetta was asked Thursday, is it possible to go to the American people and ask for another 18 months of lives lost and vast sums of money spent, when the defense budget is being cut?

“We have poured a lot of blood and treasure in this war over the last 10 years,” Panetta said. “But the fact is that we have also made a lot of progress as a result of the sacrifices that have been made,” he insisted, adding that the US cannot “walk back” now.

“I think the point to President Karzai is that he has to be thoughtful in what he comes to Washington with,” says Mr. Barno, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

“The economic context has changed, the political context is much different, and the military situation is in Year 11 in a war that in 2014 is going to be in Year 13,” he says. “How are you going to sustain it?”

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