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Violence in Iraq spikes. Are US security interests in jeopardy?

A recent rise in civilian deaths and injuries in Iraq is cause for concern, but Pentagon personnel say Iraqi security forces are proving to be 'very capable' in the year since US troops departed.

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Even amid this violence, restaurants and car dealerships – unofficial barometers analysts use to track development – are beginning to open with some frequency, says Michael Rubin, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

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But there is also a sense throughout the country that a “Damocles sword” hangs over Iraq in the form of the Syrian conflict to the west and disputes over oil wealth to the north, he adds. 

“There’s a real fear that the Syrian civil war is going to blow back into Iraq, and people worry about all of these unresolved issues with the Kurds,” Mr. Rubin says.

Less feared by Iraqi Shiites, but of more concern to Pentagon officials, is a growing Iranian influence to the east.  

“By the US withdrawing its forces, we ceded a lot of ground to the Iranians, and the Iraqis aren’t able to resist them as easily,” Rubin says. 

Iranian Air Force flyovers – which analysts suspect is to deliver aid to Syria's besieged regime – are of concern to Congress, so much so that some US lawmakers threaten to suspend all aid to Iraq if Iranian planes continue to fly over its territory.

The problem is that “Iraq doesn’t actually control its own airspace,” says Bensahel of CNAS. “Well, technically they do, but they don’t have the Air Force capability to enforce it. There are real limits to what they can do and the extent to which the US can help without a presence there.”

Iraqi officials “certainly have an awareness of how much the Iranian overflights annoy the Americans,” says AEI’s Rubin. At the same time, “they are also annoyed because they have intercepted some [Iranian] flights and don’t get credit for it.” 

Iraqi officials are also concerned that opposition forces in Syria could turn out to be Al Qaeda sympathizers – or contain elements of the terrorist group.

“If the most radical elements of the Syrian opposition win and Iraq goes to hell,” Rubin adds, “I’d expect the Iraqis are going to blame the Americans for what the Iraqis consider to be a naive position on Syria.”

Still, US officials say they believe that Iraqi officials could push more to stop suspect Iranian overflights – and to do it more often. 

Yet the biggest overall worry about Iraq, especially among conservatives who saw the US troop withdrawal there as "premature," was that the country would implode. “Those fears haven’t been realized,” says Rubin.

The ongoing US military relationship with the Iraqis through high-level training and military sales programs, though small, is a helpful link between the two countries, he adds. “It’s an excuse to have a long-term relationship with the Iraqis.” 

In terms of sales, for example, “Even if they never fly an F-16,” he says, “we’ll have people going over from the Pentagon meeting with Iraqi officials every month or two for the next decade to come.”


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