Troops withdraw, but US work in Iraq war unfinished and fragile

The key word defining the American effort in Iraq over the coming year will be "transition," as the US shifts from seven years of a military operation to a civilian-led project that in many respects outstrips anything the State Department has ever undertaken.

With the last US combat brigade leaving Iraq Thursday and only a residual force of 50,000 American military personnel remaining until December 2011, the months ahead will be a major test for both the Iraqis and the US.

The Iraqi military and police will be judged on their ability to maintain security and order, while perhaps even more crucial will be the ability of Iraq's mosaic of rival politicians to fashion a functioning government. The country is still operating under a caretaker government more than five months after March elections.

But for the US, the test will be in how its civilian State Department experts are able to take on and advance an unfinished and fragile project. Among other things, civilians will be taking over from the US military the critical police training program – and the State Department will be doing it with much less money than the Pentagon had.

The $16 billion the Pentagon was spending annually in Iraq will be slashed to about $1 billion. Some Congressional lawmakers would like to see that figure cut even further.

State Department takes lead role

State Department officials say they have been gearing up for their new lead role in Iraq for years. Most say the Iraq project is ready for a shift to a more traditional diplomat-led binational relationship.

But Iraq experts worry that the timing is wrong, given Iraq’s delicate political environment. Many question whether the State Department is prepared for its substantial new duties.

Some say that Iraq, with its tradition of military involvement in domestic affairs, is at best not well suited for what has essentially become a US experiment in civilian-led nation building.

Iraq “is not the place I’d be wanting to try this experiment,” says Ken Pollack, director of the Brooking Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “What the State Department is being asked to do is not in their DNA.”

While the US retains tremendous influence in Iraq, Mr. Pollack says, the US role is now largely one of “persuading” a divided Iraqi leadership to do things. And that power of persuasion is likely to suffer as the US moves toward a full departure of its military by December 2011, he says.

Michael O’Hanlon, a military affairs scholar also at Brookings in Washington, says he actually sees three transitions going on in Iraq, making for a particularly difficult moment in the country. In addition to the US military-to-civilian shift and the Iraqi stalemate over forming a new government, he says the top tier of US leadership in Iraq has changed all at once.

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