This is the quintessential swing race in a state with the earliest-closing polls. The polls have been extremely close, slightly favoring Republican challenger Todd Young over incumbent Democrat Baron Hill. If voters go for Mr. Young – and especially if he wins decisively – it’s a good first sign that Republicans are apt to have a good night.
The district itself is an odd amalgam of liberal (the university town of Bloomington) and conservative (the more rural and suburban areas), and Congressman Hill has done well in past years by leaning to the right. This time around, Young has attacked him heavily over his support for Obama programs like health care and the stimulus, and has accused him of favoring China over Indiana – a big concern for the one-third of voters who are blue-collar workers.
Also in Indiana: Keep an eye on Indiana's Second District, where Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly has a slightly better shot at retaining his seat. If Mr. Donnelly loses as well, it’s a bad sign for Democrats going into the rest of the night.