Most pundits are predicting a gain of two seats for Democrats, but they also note that predicting this election is nearly impossible, given how unprecedented it is. No one knows what the turnout will be like – though indications are for it to be high – or whether casual voters will go to the polls along with those who are particularly fired up.
“This whole thing is just extraordinary,” says Mr. Mayers. “You have tens of millions of dollars being spent in Wisconsin in the middle of summer by all the big groups. It’s historic.”
Even a victory of just two seats could be validating for Democrats, says Mayers. “From the beginning this was an uphill thing,” he says, noting that only two statewide politicians have ever been recalled in Wisconsin history. “It’s during the middle of summer in Republican districts. It’s an uphill battle. Two wouldn’t be a surprise factor, but it would be something that nobody would have contemplated as possible in March.”
Franklin disagrees, saying that “there are no moral victories here.”
“Getting one or two or zero is certainly saying to Democrats that you have to rethink your strategy of how do you appeal outside your base to reach other voters,” Franklin says. “It would be very disheartening.”
