World powers must cut a deal with Iran before it's too late

Instead, the world powers are making extraneous demands that may derail the negotiations over the core concern of Iran's ongoing 20 percent enrichment. For instance, in the latest talks, the P5+1 asked that Iran export its stockpile of 20 percent uranium and also shutter its protected underground enrichment facility at Fordow. This was built specifically to withstand aerial assault – probably a lesson learned from Israel's 1981 attack on Iraq's civilian reactor at Osirak. It is highly unlikely Tehran will agree to shutter it unless all threats of force are removed.

Some P5+1 nations are also insisting that Iran ratify the voluntary “Additional Protocol,” which allows the IAEA to carry out more intrusive inspections. But since such inspections may give the IAEA access to scientists and to non-nuclear military sites such as the Parchin military base, Iran may be hesitant to agree to this, lest sensitive military information be leaked to adversarial states. The recent spate of assassinations and cyberattacks against Iran have probably hardened it against agreeing to the Additional Protocol without some reciprocal removal of threats of force.

Having successfully hobbled Iran’s economy, the world powers appear to believe that they are negotiating from a position of power. But this attitude could be dangerously delusional and may backfire. It is the Iranians that are accumulating the potential bomb fuel. They, too, may be thinking that they are negotiating from a position of power.

Ongoing stalemate is not in the P5+1's favor, however. As time goes by, the world powers' negotiating position will worsen. Iran will keep collecting more and more 20 percent enriched uranium. And as Washington's allies get weary of having to keep restricting trade with Iran, it may become more difficult to present a united face in enforcing the sanctions regime. An EU court has recently struck down – for the second time – the legality of some of Europe’s sanctions on an Iranian bank.

So what can the P5+1 powers offer Tehran in exchange for the suspension of its 20 percent enrichment work? The International Crisis Group has recently compiled a list of sanctions and analyzed which ones have the highest economic impact. The suspension of some subset of these high-impact sanctions would be a good quid-pro-quo for Iran suspending its 20 percent enrichment work.

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