Washington, get ready for more Iranian influence after Bashar al-Assad falls in Syria

Yet such initiatives were previously tested through British and French intermediaries, and they have consistently failed. Hezbollah and Iran believe that their real source of power is their military might, not the Beirut ballot box. No amount of engagement will change that. In fact, the pro-Hezbollah daily newspaper Al-Akhbar recently floated the idea of Hezbollah giving up politics altogether and focusing strictly on military activities.

There is thus no shortcut to stemming, let alone rolling back, Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – influence over Lebanon, especially as Tehran continues its progress toward acquiring nuclear capability. The United States, together with European and Arab allies, must develop a long-term strategy to loosen Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon’s Shiite community. This could be achieved through initiatives that help defuse Sunni-Shia tensions, foster a more robust civil society, and support outspoken leaders who are uneasy about Hezbollah’s hold over their community.

Yet instead of doing so, Washington appears to have dropped Lebanon altogether. Democracy and development aid has come to a grinding halt, despite the monumental change shaping the region and Beirut’s historic role as a center for Arab moderation. Organizations operating in Lebanon such as the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) – US-backed nonprofits working to strengthen democracy – have been forced to close their office and end all major operations due to Washington’s shifting priorities and lack of funding.

Meanwhile, even under mounting international sanctions, Iran continues to funnel hundreds of millions of dollars to its Lebanese allies.

Unless President Obama has written off Lebanon, and is willing to come to terms with an Iranian satellite state in the Levant, a drastic new approach is required – one that does not tacitly accept the current Hezbollah dominated government as the necessary price for short-term stability.

In the months ahead, once the battle for a free Syria subsides, and as Lebanon approaches its 2013 parliamentary elections, Washington should be prepared for a new round in its confrontation with Tehran. Unless Washington works to counter Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon, the Obama administration's next exchange with Iran will be one in which the Iranians already have the upper hand.

Firas Maksad is a consultant on the Middle East and director of New Policy Advisors, a Washington D.C. advisory group. You can follow him on Twitter @FirasMaksad.

Previous

1 | 2