Ex-CIA spy: Iran's miscalculation over war

Iran’s religious and military leaders are making a major miscalculation in their confrontation with the United States that could destroy Iran and the current regime.

By refusing to address the concerns of the international community over its nuclear program, and by threatening to close the critical maritime Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is playing with fire.

In his State of the Union address, President Obama again said that he will “take no options off the table” in stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, while Israeli officials have stated the same, meaning a military strike is possible.

The American media are full of commentary warning against a military conflict – provoked by Iran blocking the strait or by crossing a nuclear red line. Now significant figures in Iran are sounding the same alarm, worried that the leaders of the Islamic regime do not understand the realities of such conflict.

If only Tehran would take these warnings seriously.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader who recently ordered the armed forces of the regime to prepare for war, is adamant about obtaining nuclear weapons – although Iran claims its nuclear program is for peaceful energy use only.

Khamenei and the clerical establishment believe nuclear weapons are part of their mission to glorify Islam. This horrifies some within the Iranian military who fear doom as tension grows between the West and Iran over its suspected nuclear-bomb program.

Sources within Iran indicate that the Iranian people, fearing a destructive war, are stocking up on necessities while voicing their concerns. Shockingly, some senior Revolutionary Guard commanders who fought during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s are now speaking out against the direction of the current leadership. They risk their lives in doing so.

Former senior Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Alaei, in a recent op-ed in a state-owned newspaper, openly criticized the Islamic leadership for suppressing the people and not allowing criticism of the supreme leader. He came immediately under attack by Mr. Khamenei’s supporters, the piece was pulled from the paper’s website, and radicals attacked his home.

Another long-time ally of the regime, Asadollah Asgar-Oladi, a wealthy businessman, recently warned the country’s leadership in a state-owned newspaper that if international sanctions are not removed, Iran could face serious inflation and shortages in six months.

Most revealing, though, is the warning of one Revolutionary Guard commander, in an anonymous letter to the opposition group Green Experts of Iran. The letter, posted on the group’s web site, says that the current commanders of the various armed forces appointed by Khamenei are delusional about their capabilities and have no clue as to the consequences of a war with America.

The dissident commander cites a disastrous miscalculation made by religious and military leaders leading to the Iran-Iraq War. Revealing the cause of the war, the commander says that Iraq’s Saddam Hussein repeatedly demanded of the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad that Iran recognize Iraq’s sovereignty and cease encouraging the Iraqi Army to revolt against Iraqi leadership.

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